Updated Updated: September 25, 2019

UK Political Betting

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Global maneuverings of contemporary politics present considerable potential for making some money provided you are ready to browse around politics odds followed by an insightful bet on politics. When it comes to political betting, every seasoned punter knows this is an obligation for any seeker of value for that matter. Since the times of Harold Wilson and Ted Heath, UK political betting has evolved significantly.

UK politic betting odds market has been largely predictive for years, for example, the coalition of Liberal democrats with the conservatives was always predestined to suffer or other political events in past, such as Ed Miliband taking up the role of Prime Minister. One of the most frenzied politics betting took place prior to public voting to determine Scotland’s stay in the UK. Interestingly, most speculators bet on the odds in favour of the Scots staying in the UK. But gone are those times and a fairly new set of factors are seen to affect UK political betting odds in recent years.

At the moment current speculations pertaining to the UK general election suggesting that UK is to face nervous breakdown after Theresa May steps down and with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn suspected to be physically frail due to deteriorating health, the tug of war between two Tory leadership contenders (Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson) seems crucial. These days, with a huge number of pounds staked on electoral outcomes, thousands of great variety markets are spawned with a gigantic scope of approaches to wager. Few bookmakers such as Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes or William Hill offer ways to bet in completely extraordinary mammoth ranges. With contemporary volatile political scenarios, it’s obvious that Britain’s sheer grit to leverage UK election political betting has fuelled nights of the highest politics betting drama possible in modern years.

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How to arrive at the odds when betting on politics UK?

Political experts who are the nerves and gurus of the direction in which current affairs are supposed to go are known to go through electoral history and identify trends that align from the past to the current. Past results, incidents, public opinions and current affairs are taken into consideration. Also, it is preferable that you take into account opinion polls and similar information sources to set odds initially.

In theory, the wager of money has to be put on events that change odds and kind of manipulate the market to a certain position. However, the problem with bet on UK politics is the sheer huge volume of bets where bookies actually didn’t believe in the volume of the bets and were stuck with the original odds. The reason behind this is that most of them are relying on foundational odds before the money is put. The foundation is to do with opinion pool beyond the monumental change worldwide, how politics is done and the electoral sphere in different countries of the world.

What to comprehend from Betfair Historical Data?

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According to Betfair data, the chances of general election shift towards 42% chances owing to the dominance of political uncertainty over British politics. When compared to Betfair historical data, this may not be the highest, but it definitely represents considerable change. As of now, the biggest threat to Tories (even bigger than Labour Party candidates) lies on Boris Johnson’s election impact on the Brexit party polling share. A major hindrance for Boris is going to be Brexit, talking of a no-deal during the leadership campaign is one thing. However, if such an event actually does happen, it could lead to catastrophic impact on many sections of the economy which become a huge factor in the elections. Also, chances that significant CON MPs could withdraw or even vote with the opposition on a confidence vote, suggest Boris Johnson may have no choice.

As per speculation, post new leader election, in case the Tories lose the Brecon by-election it would only increase parliamentary pressure. Either way betting on an early election may not be a great decision.

Spread betting UK and Political Betting UK

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It is a well-known fact that business, stock market and international trading are mainly affected by-election results as certain decisions affect investments, employment as well as economy largely. Numerous financial markets experience price movements depending on decisions such as worldwide interest rates, Gross Domestic Product figures and so on other than the company results. Politics spread betting is available with fairly new to the world’s largest sports spread betting companies that offer punters more markets. A spread bet on the politics is one of those that would keep your excitement levels up. No matter if you are buying or selling, a sports spread will potentially keep you engaged throughout possibly with one of the below especially if you are betting on politics UK:

  • Party seats which imply prediction of the number of seats each party will secure at the general election.
  • Turnout percentage that suggests predicted percentage turnout of voters at the general election.
  • Party share of vote which is basically spread based on the percentage of votes won by each nominated party.

Differences in Politics and Sports Betting:

While often offered on the same platforms, there are some key differences between politics and sports betting that must be factored in while placing your wagers. You should be aware of facts such as:

  • If you start betting in a run-up to an election, the situation is often extremely volatile as candidates fall in and out of favour within days or hours. Odds may change overnight or within a few hours. One hint at negative news can hurt a candidate’s campaign and your wager badly.
  • Prior knowledge is often a major problem for politics betting. If you are betting on who the party’s primary candidate will be or who will win the election, the odds are that most people already know the answers to these question due to yearlong coverage of political news by the newspapers and other media. Hence, unless extraordinary situations come up, you cannot expect great prices.
  • In sports, there are often dark horse teams or players that have large odds but on their day can emerge victorious. Such is often not the case in terms of UK politics as the candidates with bigger odds are often duds without a realistic shot at winning anything.

Hence if you are a seasoned sports bettor, you need to curb your enthusiasm a little bit during political betting and play a bit more cautiously. Since the returns are not so great most of the times, there is a tendency for people to go overboard with their wagers. But the smartest thing to do with politics betting is to treat it as a side fun and take out small profits to add onto your other betting activities.

Watch Out for Key Events

 BBC debate in June

Political rallies, debates, discussions and events often change the course of an election and by extension, the odds and prices of the bets. Take for example the BBC debate in June. Previously between Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson, an overwhelming majority of voters and pundit were backing Mr Johnson, and the same was reflected in the odds provided by Ladbrokes and other bookmakers. But as Mr Hunt emerged victorious in the 5-way debate, his odds tumbled drastically from 18/1 to 12/1. Does that make him a shoo-in for the Prime Minister’s role? Not quite. But the change in odds surely bodes well for those backing Mr Hunt and should be taken note of.

Ladbrokes political betting UK

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UK betting establishment Ladbrokes is often considered to be the quintessential aspect of political betting due to their historically correct odds and ability to gauge public sentiment even before the pundits come out with their point of view. While a lot of the political betting activity on Ladbrokes is currently focused on Brexit, one can gain significant pointers and information on other major political events as well. Take a leaf from the above example, Ladbrokes currently has Jeremy Hunt at odds of 10/1 which is further down from last month. As they are a leading bookmaker that is highly trusted in terms of UK political betting, going through the Ladbrokes website and understanding the odds they have provided could mean the difference between a winning wager and a losing one.

Ladbrokes Latest Betting:

  • The UK leaving with No Deal- 5/2 shot
  • Boris Johnson to be next Prime Minister –1/14
  • Jeremy Hunt to be next Prime Minister – 14/1
  • Year of the next general election:

    2019: 5/4

    2020:5/2 

    2021: 12/1

    2022 or later: 5/2

  • By When will Theresa May be replaced?

    2019 – 4/6

    2020 or later – 9/4

Due to a fewer number of bets being wagered on the likelihood of a second people’s vote, as observed by the operator’s political division of the bookie, Ladbrokes is required to shorten its odds.

Keep a Lid on Your Sentiments

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While this is pretty sound advice for each type of betting no matter what the sport, event or contexts are, this is especially true for politics betting. Human beings are creatures of bias and nothing brings our true biases and presumptuous opinions to the fore than when it comes to politics. As a person, you must have your favourite parties, leaders and directions that the country can take but one needs to understand if the majority of the population is pulling away from them. This is often the case with politics betting where you might find your favourite candidate or party at astronomical odds of winning an election. Going with your gut as you hope against hope is a sure-fire way to lose your hard-earned money. Always follow the polls, review the odds, stay abreast with current affairs and take an informed decision. If that means betting against your favourite candidate, so be it.

When to Bet?

If profit is the final motive in your UK political bets, it is better to hold till a scenario emerges where the results are not that clear or the race is extremely close. For example, Cameron vs. Brown vs. Clegg was an extremely close race to the finish and all bettors enjoyed great odds that lead to hefty profits for many. But as discussed earlier, for most cases political betting would have short odds. In such a case one way to profit is stake very big amounts which may not be feasible for small bettors. And of course, the other option is to wait for the right time.

FAQs

Under the current circumstances, no. While Jeremy Hunt has gained some traction in recent months and Boris Johnson’s health has created some concern, the majority is still unanimous regarding Brexit results and who the likely next Prime Minister would be after Theresa May’s departure. As a result, you can expect short odds which may not lead to much profit when compared to the research and effort you have to put into it.

All major UK betting sites and bookmakers allow for politics betting and not only for UK politics but also on political events from around the world. For example, from UK betting sites such as William Hill, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Betfair you can easily bet on the Democrat and Republican nominees for 2020 US presidential election and also bet on who the president might be. There are also bets available on events like the day of Theresa May’s exit, Donald’ Trump’s impeachment after this term and so on and so forth.

This completely depends on the volatility of the situation. Over the last couple of decades, UK politics has been very stable barring a few scenarios. Hence with complete knowledge of the likely outcomes, bookmakers offer short odds that are not very profitable. But bettors with deeper pockets have been known to make handsome profits via larger stakes.

Keeping a tab on the current events in politics is the key but you can get significant pointers from opinion polls, exit polls, debates, news and other sources of information including social media. There are many publications and TV programs dedicated towards political viewpoints of a country which can prove invaluable. Finally, the odds provided by a bookmaker can often indicate the public mood and direction in which the current affairs are going. Staying true to such observations and safeguarding against any favouritism and biases is paramount before your hard-earned money is wagered in politics betting.

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