The draw of the third Grand Slam of the season has already been released and the bookmakers have already priced everything up, so that’s where we come in, trying to identify some value bets in the various outright markets. The French Open was pretty successful for us as far as the outright bets are concerned, so we’ll be hoping to build on that over the next two weeks, as the recent grass court tournaments have handed us some information about who might do well in the most famous Grand Slam of them all.
Who Can Win?
Rafael Nadal successfully defended his French Open title a few weeks ago, but he can’t be satisfied about what’s happened since his victory against Novak Djokovic in the finals. He was supposed to get some match practice in Halle, but Dustin Brown dashed his hopes of that, so the Spaniard won’t be in any sort of rhythm coming into the Grand Slam. His biggest rival, Novak Djokovic, hasn’t played since the French Open and doesn’t seem to be completely fine from the fitness point of view, so he’ll certainly be in the center of attention during the first week.
Stanislas Wawrinka and David Ferrer might have appeared in the draw, but shrewd punters will do well to avoid backing them, as they apparently have some worrying health issues that they probably won’t be able to solve completely before the start of the tournament. Meanwhile, Andy Murray looked poor in Queen’s, so Roger Federer is the only big name that did really well in the smaller grass court tournaments. The draw has also been quite fair to the grass court legend, so we think that he’s going to do well in his favourite Grand Slam this time.
In the women’s draw, Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova are the names to be avoided due to health worries, while Viktoria Azarenka didn’t convince us in Eastbourne either, so we don’t believe that she has a chance of winning this particular Grand Slam. The draw wasn’t kind to Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams, as they will most likely face each other for a spot in the semi-finals, so Li Na is probably the only big name that we wouldn’t be afraid of backing at this point in time.
Given how many of the favourites seem to be struggling at the moment, we believe that there’s a good chance that we’re going to see plenty of upsets over the next two weeks. Nonetheless, it’s very hard to win a Grand Slam, so we aren’t willing to back any of the massive long-shots either.
In fact, we’re going to stay clear of betting on the outright winner in the men’s draw. Instead, we’re going to back two players in the quarter betting. Grigor Dimitrov, the world’s number thirteen, looked very good in Queen’s and is bound to be motivated after disappointing in the French Open, so we think that he’s got a real chance of beating players like Andy Murray and Andreas Seppi. In the fourth quarter of the draw, we would very much like to go against Rafael Nadal, who’s a big unknown right now, but it’s hard to find a player that we would trust without any reservations over there. Kei Nishikori, for example, has enough quality to win a Grand Slam, but his fitness is such a big worry in the longer matches that it’s hard to believe that he’ll be able to do so at some point of his career. At the end of the day, we’ve decided to select Gael Monfils, as he was quite good in the French Open and as he has what it takes to beat Rafael Nadal on a faster surface, having troubled him on numerous occasions. Even a small bet would land a big return, so a bet on the Frenchman seems to be worth the risk.
As far as the women are concerned, Ana Ivanovic looks good value to us, as she showed some good tennis in Birmingham, where she prevailed without losing any sets. With a little bit of luck, she might be able to cope with the draw she’s been handed and the price could therefore look very big at the start of the second week. In the third quarter, we think that Lucie Safarova has a realistic chance of winning if she finds the right sort of rhythm early on, so we’re going to recommend a small punt on her in the quarter betting.
Roger Federer to win Wimbledon 2014 (Best Odds: 7.00 @ BetVictor)
Li Na to win Wimbledon 2014 (Best Odds: 17.00 @ Paddy Power)
Ana Ivanovic to win Wimbledon 2014 (Best Odds: 34.00 @ Bet365)
Grigor Dimitrov to win his quarter (Best Odds: 6.00 @ BetVictor)
Gael Monfils to win his quarter (Best Odds: 17.00 @ BetVictor)
Lucie Safarova to win her quarter (Best Odds: 29.00 @ Bet365)