The Sky Super Sunday match is a clash between West Bromwich Albion and Newcastle at the Hawthorns. The Magpies are still fighting for an outside chance of Champions League qualification, while Albion have started to improve some previously mediocre home form with a couple of eye catching wins. Where is the money going in this one?
Over 2.5 Goals (1.90 @ Betfair)
West Brom have boosted their home form of late, with decent wins against first Sunderland and then Chelsea – the victory versus the Blues ultimately costing Andre Villas-Boas his job at Stamford Bridge. The results on the road have also been reasonable, and that has left the Baggies on a run of just one defeat in the last five, that coming against Manchester United at Old Trafford. 11 goals in that spell have also signalled an improvement in front of goal, so it is small wonder that some Albion players are talking of a top 10 finish.
The 13/10 about the hosts is tempting, but with a record of just 4 wins at home all term, the recent improvement is not emphatic enough to see that as good value. While the visitors are erratic, the fire power at their disposal makes them a danger in any game.
At the start of the season, Newcastle relied heavily on some great defensive statistics, but since Demba Ba got going, they now appear more likely to out-gun sides, rather than strangle the life out of them. Alan Pardew has only seen his side fail to score once in their last 13 League encounters. Coincidentally, that run started with the 2-3 defeat at St James Park by West Brom.
Likewise, Albion have only failed to score once in their last 11 games in all competitions, so with those numbers in mind the ‘Over 2.5′ market would appear to offer value at 1.9. Clean sheets are rare for both clubs, and historical trends suggest goals – 3 of the last 4 clashes at the Hawthorns have seen 3 goals or more.
Both teams to Score (8/11) and the Over 2.5 goals price of 10/11 look to offer genuine value here. Both teams are difficult to shut out, and neither defence has a particularly strong recent record (Newcastle have one clean sheet in six, Albion two in thirteen). Preference is just given to the Overs market due to the historical trends.