The 17th season of the UFC’s The Ultimate Fighter reality TV show concludes this evening and as well as fights involving the contestants of the show we are treated to a high quality main card and an exceptional main event between Urijah Faber and Scott Jorgensen. Faber is a strong favourite but we at BetPal have found what we think is a little bit of value being offered by SkyBet at 12/5.
This fight sees a battle between the #2 and #7 ranked bantamweights in the world and as with most fights between men weighing 135lbs should be fast paced and exciting. As previously stated, Faber is the clear favourite and at a best price 2/9 does not appeal too much.
If we assume that Faber will win the fight, which we believe is a safe assumption, then the best betting strategy is perhaps to decipher how Faber will win the bout.
Faber has 15 of his 27 career wins by submission but Jorgensen can hold his own in the BJJ game and of his 6 losses only one has came via submission and that was back in the 3rd fight of his career, in 2006. Although it was more recently, Jorgensen has also only been stopped by strikes once in his career and it this resiliency coupled with 4 previous decision losses that leaves us feeling a Faber decision victory is the most likely outcome.
In 5 of his last 9 fights, Faber has went to the judges, and although 4 of those were losses they were against opponents who were of a little more quality than tonight’s opponent. This shows a tendency for his fights to go the distance recently and that seems the value play at the prices. SkyBet are a standout price of 12/5 on Faber to win by decision.
Elsewhere on the card, the bookmakers seem to have taken a cautious approach with a lot of the fights between the contestants from the TV show, offering little between the fighters when there should perhaps be a favourite.
This is the case in the Dylan Andrews and Jimmy Quinlan fight. This is a fight between a well-rounded 20-fight veteran and a 3-fight MMA rookie with Andrews being the more experienced fighter.
Quinlan has a severe lack of striking ability and BetPal suggests that Andrews will have too much in the striking department and be good enough to avoid the ground battles where Quinlan’s main assests lie. William Hill have offered Andrews to win at 10/11 and this can’t be refused.
The event should kick off around 3am Sunday morning UK time.
UFC: The Ultimate Fighter Finale
Urijah Faber to defeat Scott Jorgensen by decision – 12/5 with SkyBet.
Dylan Andrews to defeat Jimmy Quinlan – 10/11 with William Hill.