The main event of UFC on FOX 9 sees Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson defend his flyweight championship against the Team Alpha Male member Joseph Benavidez in a fight that sees the two go head-to-head for the second time in 15 months. Whilst we have a view on that fight, the best of our free UFC betting tips for the event sees us back a fighter to go to decision for the 6th consecutive time and get his hand raised at 21/10 with Ladbrokes.
Court McGee began his UFC career with two submission wins but since then has faced the judges’ scorecards on 5 straight occasions and has posted a 3-2 record in those 5 fights. Since dropping to welterweight he has won two in a row and at UFC on FOX 9 he takes on the undefeated Ryan LaFlare.
This fight is of interest because it looks highly likely to go to a decision, McGee doesn’t quite have the power to stop fights and has a high volume, grinding style whilst LaFlare has won by decision on both of his UFC appearances to date and doesn’t look to have a fantastic amount of power.
Whilst we only have a small sample of fight statisitics with LaFlare, he’s landed 3.73 significant strikes per minute, we have a bigger sample with McGee who lands 5.93 significant strikes per minute – a figure that puts in him 4th in the list of fighters with 5 UFC fights or more. McGee also has a slightly lower accuracy statistic so that suggests that he has to throw a lot of strikes to land that 5.93 and a throwing a lot of strikes is always a positive when it comes to winning a decision.
LaFlare has attempted 11 takedowns in his two UFC fights thus far but that may have been an opponent specific tactic with Alloway and Ponzinibbio not known as strong wrestlers. McGee is stronger in that department, and has posted an 83% takedown defence rate in his UFC career thus far.
The price for McGee to win by decision stands out – he is the slight favourite in the outrights at 4/5 but the bookmakers believe LaFlare is more likely to win by decision. The fighters’ styles coupled with the statistics would suggest otherwise and McGee to win by decision is our standout free UFC bet for UFC on FOX 9 at 21/10 with Ladbrokes.
In the main event, Johnson was a big underdog last time the two fought and was one of the best bets of 2012 but is the favourite this time and it is time for us to flip our position and side with Benavidez. He’s displayed notably improved striking of late under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig and if he can land on Johnson he has the power to finish and that’s the bet I like best in the main event – Benavidez to win by TKO/KO at 9/2 with 888Sport.
UFC Betting Tips – UFC on FOX 9: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2
Court McGee to win by decison @ 21/10 Ladbrokes
Joseph Benavidez to win by TKO/KO @ 9/2 888Sport