The Ultimate Fighting Championships‘ 3rd event of the year seems the company take their production to Chicago for UFC on FOX 10 where the event is headlined by Benson Henderson and Josh Thomson, two lightweights looking to earn themselves a shot at the lightweight title. Our selection for that fight will be outlined below as we recommend a 6/1 bet with BetVictor but we have another free UFC betting tip for the event too.
Benson Henderson recently relinquished his UFC lightweight title when submitting to a Anthony Pettis armbar and he has been given a tough assignment in the shape of Josh Thomson as he begins his climb to a rematch with Pettis.
Henderson is a 1/3 favourite for the fight but I think that price is too short and am going to build a case to back Josh Thomson at 12/5 to win and more interestingly at 6/1 to win by decision, both with BetVictor.
Any Henderson followers will know his UFC career has been somewhat of a grind, with 7 straight decision victories before his recent loss with two of those decision split verdicts and others extremely close. This clearly shows that Henderson’s style leads to decision verdicts rather than stoppages and those two split decision victories both came once he was champion where the champions are notoriously favoured on the cards. It’s obviously key to note that he isn’t the champion in this fight so we can remove the “champion’s decision” element.
Thomson himself has also shown a recent tendency to go to a decision with 4 of his last 5 going that way so there is a solid chance that these two fighters will need the judges’ help to decide the winner.
Josh Thomson is likely to employ a straight forward kickboxing style and the belief is that he will attempt to involve a kick heavy strategy, something that Henderson hasn’t had to deal with too much in his UFC career. Mixing kicks with punches is definitely something that sticks out in a judge’s mind and can pinch rounds that way. He should be able to outland Henderson and hopefully nullify any “Bendo” clinch or takedown attacks.
Whilst Henderson is the favourite in this fight, 1/3 is far too short, meaning that we can make a bet full of value on Josh Thomson. The 12/5 outright is nice but the bet to make is Thomson by decision, given that that is by far the most likely method of victory for him in this fight. Josh Thomson to win by decision is 6/1 with BetVictor.
The featherweight clash between Darren Elkins and Jeremy Stephens mostly been priced up 10/11 each fighter by most firms but SkyBet are currently offering 11/10 for Elkins to win.
That bet in itself offers us a fraction of value if the right price is 10/11 but the bet that is most interesting is the 2/1 for Darren Elkins to win by decision with BetVictor. Elkins is a clever enough, and good enough, fighter to avoid Stephens’ power early and from there he can outpoint Stephens on his way to victory. Six of Elkins’ last 7 career victories have been by decision, whilst Stephens has 5 career decision losses (from 9 losses).
UFC Betting Tips – UFC on FOX 10: Henderson vs. Thomson
Josh Thomson to win by decision @ 6/1 BetVictor
Darren Elkins to win by decision @ 2/1 BetVictor