UFC Fight Night 36 sees the Ultimate Fighting Championships continue to build their brand in Brazil with yet another event in the South American country, with this time the headlining act one of Brazil’s most reknowned fighters, Lyoto Machida. Machida will look to take another step towards a shot at the middleweight title and is a heavy favourite to see off the challenge of Gegard Mousasi. Below we will detail our best bet in that headlining fight as well as outlining our top free UFC betting tip for UFC Fight Night 36, which sees us find the best way to get with another big favourite on the card at 21/10 with William Hill.
Lyoto Machida makes his second appearance in the UFC’s middleweight divison after a successful run in their light-heavyweight division, where he held the title. In his first outing in the weight class he needed only a handful of strikes to put away perennial top ten middleweight and he’ll look to boost his title chances further by defeating Gegard Mousasi, who drops back to 185 pounds for the first time in a number of years.
Machida is as short as 2/5 in the outrights which is perhaps the right price and a no bet for us, but there is still a bet to be made on the headlining fight and it is based purely on how the fight is going to play out.
The fight is almost certainly going to take place at quite a slow pace, something that is a signature of Machida’s fights, with Mousasi also a slower paced fighter. Mousasi’s style plays right into the hands of “The Dragon” and the Brazilian should be able to pick apart Mousasi from the outside.
Feints and the ability to have his opponents chasing him around the cage are two of the biggest elements of Machida’s game and they will be used fully in this fight as he outstrikes Mousasi. However, with the slower pace of the fight, and Mousasi’s known toughness, this should fight should end with the scorecards favouring Machida, and not with one of his devastating finishes.
Lyoto Machida to win by decision is a best price 13/8 with Boylesports and that is the best alternative to simply backing the Brazilian at his short outright price. Despite his enjoyable highlight reel of finishes, Machida has won half of his 20 wins by decision and that, coupled with the predicted style of fight make this a must-bet.
In the c0-main event, two other top ten middleweights do battle as Brazilian Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza looks to delight the home crowd with a victory over emerging talent, and GSP team-mate, Francis Carmont.
Souza is a deserved heavy favourite at 1/5 as Carmont hasn’t been overly impressive in racking up his 6-0 UFC record and there is a good chance he is close to be over-rated already. This is a good opportunity to take Carmont on and William Hill have given us a great platform to do so by pricing up Ronaldo Souza to win by submission at 21/10, when it generally 6/4 elsewhere.
He is one of the top BJJ artists competing in MMA at the moment and with 14 of his 19 wins coming by submission it is clear that he has no trouble finding ways to submit his opponents. Often the worry is that submission fighters tend to struggle to secure finishes when they step up in competition but if the opinion that Carmont is over-rated is true then this isn’t so much of a step up.
“Jacare” has found ways to submit UFC level fighters Camozzi, Herman and Lawler in recent times and will have 15 minutes to find the opening against Carmont.
UFC Betting Tips – UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs. Mousasi
Lyoto Machida to win by decision @ 13/8 Boylesports
Ronaldo Souza to win by submission @ 21/10 William Hill