The Ultimate Fighting Championships continue with their promise to fans of more events as UFC Fight Night 28 on Wednesday the 4th of September sees them return for their 3rd event within 8 days. The event has been relatively low key in comparison to other recent, perhaps due to the fact it is being held in Brazil, and doesn’t feature any of the top stars. However, this doesn’t stop there being opportunities for BetPal to produce our usual free UFC betting tips and we have two excellent selections, including backing an underdog at 12/5 with SkyBet.
The bookmakers seem to have priced up the fight between Rafael Natal (2/5 Paddy Power) and Tor Troeng (12/5 SkyBet) as perhaps a slight mismatch but to me it is clear they are either overrating Natal or underrating Troeng, who has only had one UFC fight previously against an overmatched opponent.
Troeng’s true price, in my opinion, should be closer to 6/4 and that would be taking into consideration Natal’s UFC experience and home crowd advantage.
Natal has no major wins on his record, in fact the more casual UFC fan may struggle to identify any of his recent opponents. What does stand out is losses to Andrew Craig and Rich Attonito, neither of whom can be classed as top class.
Tor Troeng has a very decent all round style and looks to be mispriced, meaning we should take advantage.
Team Alpha Male have enjoyed incredible results since Duane “Bang” Ludwig took over as their head coach and in particular it their improvements in the striking department that have been outstanding. This was exemplified by Chad Mendes’ TKO victory over Clay Guida at the weekend, against a man who had not been stopped by strikes previously.
It is Joseph Benavidez’s time to turn out for TAM at UFC Fight Night 28 and he is the subject of the second of our free UFC betting tips. He looks to be constantly improving and will likely have too much for his opponent, Jussier Da Silva.
Priced as short as 1/7 that doesn’t appeal but his improved striking and solid submission game make the other markets playable. Most firms offer evens (2.0) for Benavidez to win by TKO/KO but I think it is worth adding in the submission to the TKO/KO at the 4/5 on offer with SkyBet.
I can see a slightly tentative opening round before Benavidez ends it in the 2nd round, as he did in his previous fight. The 2nd round victory is priced at 5/1 with Ladbrokes and is worth a small stakes bet.
UFC Betting Tips – UFC Fight Night 28
Tor Troeng @ 12/5 SkyBet
Joseph Benavidez to win by KO/TKO/Submission @ 4/5 SkyBet
Joseph Benavidez to win in the 2nd round @ 5/1 Ladbrokes