The Ultimate Fighting Championships’ new coverage on the American channel FOX Sports 1 continues after a successful first show earlier this month as they return with UFC Fight Night 27 from Indianapolis. In what is an unusual move, they promote a live event away from their usual Saturday evening slot but that hasn’t stopped the organisation providing the fans with an excellent fight card, headlined Carlos Condit looking to avenge his UFC debut loss to Martin Kampmann. We have a number of free UFC betting tips, with the best of those coming in the aforementioned main event where a 13/8 bet with BetVictor stands out.
The first clash between Carlos Condit (4/9 William Hill) and Martin Kampmann (9/4 bet365) took place back in 2009 when Condit was making his UFC debut after moving from the WEC. On that occasion, Kampmann used a decent amount of wrestling to take home a split decision victory.
However, since that fight their careers have taken slightly different paths with Kampmann fighting a mixture of top ten guys and fighter floating outside the top ten, amassing a 5-3 record in that spell, without really getting close to a shot at the title, whilst Carlos Condit rattled off five straight victories to land the interim UFC title before coming up short against George St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks in his last two bouts.
What makes this fight interesting is the two fighters’ contrasting early styles. Condit has become known for his aggressive starts and all action style whilst Kampmann is a notoriously slow starter and that has cost him either in the shape of a first round defeat or by gifting his opponents the opening rounds on the way to decision losses.
Since their first fight, Condit’s wrestling has improved and whilst it is still not of a high level it is enough to deal sufficiently with someone with Kampmann’s level of wrestling. This is instantly a bonus as it keeps the feel standing where Condit has an advantage and has looked very sharp in recent fights.
Carlos Condit is a finisher, with 26 of his 28 career wins coming by stoppage, and there is no doubt he will be seeking the stoppage victory against “The Hitman” to get his name as close to the title picture once again as possible.
Whilst Condit’s 26 finishes have an even 13/13 split between TKO/KO and submission, he hasn’t submitted an opponent since 2008 and it is clear he now has a tendency to finish his fights with strikes.
From my analysis on how the fight may play out the best value play looks to be to back Carlos Condit to defeat Martin Kampmann by TKO/KO at the 13/8 on offer with BetVictor.
It is also recommended that you have a slightly smaller stakes bet on Condit to win in the first round and BetVictor are again a stand out price with their 9/2.
In support of the second bet, Kampmann has 4 of his 7 career defeats by TKO/KO with all four of those coming in the first round, this is likely due to his aforementioned charactaristically slow start. Condit is just the man to take advantage of those slow starts with a number of first round wins in his career, including both of his most recent stoppage wins.
Elsewhere on the main card, two former Ultimate Fighter contestants go head-t0-head as Court McGee (6/5 bet365) takes on the Australian Robert Whittaker (10/13 SkyBet) in what should be a reasonably close fight.
Whittaker has switched his training to the Tri-Star gym in Canada, where notable colleagues include fellow welterweights George St-Pierre and Rory MacDonald, and the improvements in the reality show winner’s skills was clear to see as he defeated Colton Smith last time out.
McGee’s fights are mostly very close, and similar aesthetically, and this one should be no different but I expect Whittaker’s improvements to see him through to a decision victory. Robert Whittaker takes this one by decision and BetVictor offer 15/8 on that outcome.
Erik Perez (8/11 SkyBet) and Donald Cerrone (4/6 William Hill) both fight out of Jackson’s MMA and both look like worthy favourites to take home their victories. In both instances, I would lead towards decision victories but both men are good finishers and we’ll play it safe with the outright win prices.
UFC Betting Tips – UFC Fight Night 27
Carlos Condit to win by TKO/KO/DQ @ 13/8 BetVictor
Carlos Condit to win in Round 1 @ 9/2 BetVictor
Robert Whittaker to win by Decision @ 15/8 BetVictor
Erik Perez to win @ 8/11 SkyBet
Donald Cerrone to win @ 4/6 William Hill