The Ultimate Fighting Championships always try to put on one of their biggest cards of the year around the American July 4th celebrations and once again they have succeeded with UFC 162 an exciting eleven fight card. Each of the 11 fights looks sure to have their own entertainment value but the fight everyone will be anticipating is the main event where we are once again treated to the skills of the middleweight champion, and greatest MMA fighter of all time, Anderson Silva as he defends his title against the undefeated Chris Weidman. Below we give our views on that fight as well as highlighting some selections on the other fights, including our bet of the night where we see one phenomenal striker ending the night of his opponent in the 1st round at 15/8 with Ladbrokes.
The main event doesn’t give us the best betting opportunities of the evening, and in fact we don’t have a stand out recommendation for the fight but it would be doing the fight a dishonour not to discuss it first and highlight some of the prices available.
Not many will argue against labelling Anderson Silva (5/12 Ladbrokes) the greatest MMA fighter of all time but at 38 years old it is safe to say he is in the latter part of his career. At UFC 162 he takes on Chris Weidman (11/5 BetVictor), an undefeated 9-0 fighter who many are predicting can snatch away Silva’s title.
Unlike many of the media, we don’t believe Weidman can win. Anderson Silva is the greatest for a reason and shown recently that not only can he win in the flashy style he is known for but he can also find a way to win even when facing severe problems.
Weidman’s price is much shorter than anyone has been whilst facing Anderson Silva for a very long time and it has been reducing at a steady rate over the last couple of weeks as the hype builds around the fight but this is mostly due to a lot of the media hyping the fight by starting to doubt Silva and somehow think Weidman has the ability to dethrone the champion. This has created a false price in my eyes and Weidman should be nearer 5/1 than 2/1. For those who like a short priced bet, or accumulators, Silva is at a great price.
Silva’s ability can’t be doubted and I think he’ll win by something flashy once more – he leads almost every single striking statistic in the UFC – as he’ll have too much in the striking department for Weidman. I can’t seem to find much value in the prices and will be giving myself a watching brief.
Our main free UFC betting tip for UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman actually comes in a fight much lower down the card as two Brazilians clash in the shape of Edson Barboza and Rafaello Oliveira in what to my eye, and when you look at the fights statistics, looks like a very big mismatch as Barboza is the class above Oliveira.
The image to the right illustrates how big a differential there is in these two fighters but the main statistics show that Barboza has a huge advantage in the striking department against the grappler Oliveira who looks like he will have a difficult time getting this fight down to the ground with only a 42% takedown success rate against Barboza’s 80% defence rate.
Oliveira can’t get this fight down and that will leave him in a horrible position against one of the most talented strikers in the whole of the UFC. Barboza will finish Oliveira and he’ll do it early – he has 6 of 11 career victories in the opening round, including last time out – thus Barboza to win in the first round at 15/8 with Ladbrokes looks a great bet when you consider he is 1/5 in the outrights.
Our second, and final, free UFC betting tip for UFC 162 comes in the Mark Munoz and Tim Boetsch fight where I believe Boetsch is being undervalued for a number of reasons and I think the prices are the wrong way around for the fighters with Munoz currently the favourite.
Boetsch was desperately unlucky last time out against Costas Phillipou suffering injury and misfortune whilst leading in the fight and this coupled with the fact he is not the most exciting fighter ever leads to him continually being underrated by both fans and oddsmakers.
Munoz is coming off a year long lay-off and although he has returned in improved shape I think Boetsch will just be too big and grinding for him. Neither man is particularly known for being knockout artists, especially when fighting other top level fighters, and this fight looks like it will need the judges to separate them. Of Boetsch’s last 5 wins, 4 have came via decision and I expect that to continue as he is able to control Munoz throughout. Boetsch to win by decision is best priced at 27/10 with SportingBet.
UFC Betting Tips – UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman
Edson Barboza to win in the 1st round @ 15/8 Ladbrokes
Tim Boetsch to win by decision @ 27/10 SportingBet