Tonight sees an AFC South divisional clash on Thursday night football as Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts visit the Tennessee Titans

Recommmendation

Over 42 points with 888Sport at 10/11

Indianapolis is coming off its worst loss since 2011, a thumping 30 point reverse at home to the St Louis Rams and Tennessee just became the first team to lose to the Jaguars, so both will be looking to rebound just four days later.

This is the first of two games between these teams in three weeks. A Tennessee win not only trims the Colts current two game’ lead in the division but keeps a franchise chasing its first playoff berth since 2008 in the mix for the AFC’s final wild-card spot.

Starting Tennessee quarterback Jake Locker was forced to leave the Jaguars game with a foot injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick finished the rest of the game, and now will have to finish the rest of the season as Locker is out for the year because of a Lisfranc injury that could force him to undergo surgery. Fitzpatrick though is one of the ebtter back ups in the league, he started the majority of his team’s games from 2008-2012. He’s played in four games this year because of injuries to Locker, registering a 76.0 passer rating, while throwing four touchdowns and four interceptions.

A win for Tennessee last week would have put them just one game behind the Colts atop the AFC South. At 4-5, though, they won’t be able to get a share of first place with a win. Indianapolis is still a heavy favorite to win the division. Other than the Titans, the Jaguars and Houston Texans have just three combined wins.

As the two teams square off on “Thursday Night Football,” the Colts are favoured on the road. The betting line has them giving the Titans three points in a game expected to produce 42 points, the thirs lowest expected total across the Week 11 games.

At times this year, the Colts have been viewed as one of the best teams in the league. However, they continue to struggle against inferior competition. They are 2-4 against the spread a favorites, including three outright losses. In part this is because they struggle to run the ball, with an inferior offensive line and don’t committ to the long game with Andrew Luck and receivers like TY Hilton

The trends make me wary of taking the Colts as an away favourite in a divisional game. Of more interest is backing the game to go over the 42 point line at 10/11 with 888Sport . Fitzpatrick and his slightly more aggressive style than Locker which should help the Titans points scoring potential, whilst increasing the risk of turnovers giving Luck a shorter field to operate with.

Recommmendation

Over 42 points with 888Sport at 10/11