Australia will have the momentum going into the third Test at Edgbaston after their 405-run win at Lords. The Third test begins on Wednesday

Recommendation (BetfairSportsbook)

England to win the third Test at 3-1

As things stand, there cannot be too much doubt that Australia start off as favourites going into the third Ashes Test. They were clinical in their Lord’s win last game, winning the toss on a great batting pitch, making a match winning score and then bowling England out twice to level the series at 1-1.

Steve Smith entered the series as the world’s number one batsman and with over 270 runs at Lords put in a man of the match performance after his frustrations in Cardiff. Chris Rogers also hit a big century in the second test but there are some doubts over his participation in this Test after suffering from a dizzy spell which was probably a direct consequence of being hit on his head by a James Anderson bouncer. If he sits out, then Shaun Marsh, who had played in the Caribbean when Rogers was injured, will get a chance.

Mitchell Johnson’s bowling on a docile pitch at Lord’s was a real difference maker. He took six wickets and troubled all the England batsman with his hostility, especially with short balls, he made batting tough. It will be interesting to see the pitch prepared for Edgbaston. Some grass would be welcomed by the England bowlers and give them a chance to win the game if the track does seam and swing

England have dropped Gary Ballance who has looked out of form against the Australian quick bowlers and the in-form Jonny Bairstow has been brought in for him. He will bat at five which means the pressure will be on Ian Bell, who will walk out at three to try and improve his form Opener Adam Lyth needs runs or he could be the next player out of the team. Indeed England’s top five has a problematic look to it, with only Cook and Root showing much form this series.

James Anderson struggled with the ball at Lord’s on a flat pitch but Stuart Broad bowled impressively. Mark Wood and Ben Stokes did not threaten and instead Moeen Ali once again took important wickets.

The current third Test match odds are as follows:

Australia: 10/11

England: 3/1

Draw: 11/4

Looking at sub-markets, all prices with Betfair Sportsbook

Top Australia batsman in the 3rd Test:

Steve Smith: 19/5

David Warner 4/1

Shaun Marsh: 9/2

Michael Clarke: 11/2

Chris Rogers: 6/1

Top England batsman in the 3rd Test

Joe Root: 4/1

Alastair Cook: 9/2

Ian Bell: 13/2

Adam Lyth: 17/2

Ben Stokes  9/1

Jonny Bairstow: 9/1

Top Australia bowler in the 3rd Test

Mitchell Johnson: 4/1

Mitchell Starc: 4/1

Josh Hazlewood: 4/1

Nathan Lyon: 7/1

Top England bowler in the 3rd Test

Stuart Broad: 7/2

James Anderson: 9/2

Mark Wood: 5/1

Steven Finn: 13/2

Moeen Ali: 8/1

My favoured strategy would be to continue to avoid the draw, which is unlikely in the absence of inclement weather. A speculative play would be to support England at 3/1 and hope for either/both of winning the toss and a more sporting pitch.

In sub-markets Smith is a solid favourite whilst Anderson is a bigger price than normal at 9/2. Both can be supported.

Recommendation (BetfairSportsbook)

England to win the third Test at 3-1