The Sussex Stakes is the feature race on the second day of Glorious Goodwood. A Group 1 run over a mile, the race has been won by some terrific horses over the years, none greater than Frankel (pictured) who took the honours in 2011 and 2012. But who will be following in his hoof prints? We’ve picked out a 5/1 (6.00) shot with Coral that we reckon has a good chance…
We’ve cast an eye over recent winners of Glorious Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes in order to see what it takes to win the race. Here are the important trends that emerge:
Key Sussex Stakes Trends
- All of the last 14 Sussex Stakes winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 13 of the last 14 winners posted a Racing Post Rating of 121 or better last time out
- 13 of the last 14 winners ran in the past 55 days
These Sussex Stakes trends show us that we need to find a horse that’s race sharp and currently in good form.
- 11 of the last 14 winners of the Sussex Stakes had won a Group 1
- 11 of the last 14 winners had won at 1m
Only horses of a certain calibre can win Glorious Goodwood’s Sussex Stakes, as shown by these trends. Of the 3 exceptions to the first of these trends, one had never actually run in a Group 1; of the 3 exceptions to the latter trend, all 3 had placed in a Group 1.
- 13 of the last 14 Sussex Stakes winners were in the first 4 in the betting
The Sussex Stakes is not one for the big priced outsider, as confirmed by this particular trend.
- 9 of the last 14 Sussex Stakes winners were aged 3
This trend suggests a slight bias towards the three year olds. Not only that, but of the 34 places up for grabs in that time period, 18 were filled by 3 year olds (52.94%) from around 40% of the total runners. Of the 5 older horses to win the Sussex Stakes in that time period, 4 had finished in the front two of the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, so don’t discount these horses.
After applying the above trends to the 2013 Sussex Stakes field, just two candidates stand out: Dawn Approach and the Queen Anne winner Declaration Of War.
I won’t be at all surprised to see Jim Bolger’s 2,000 Guineas winner land this race, but as the antepost favourite at current best odds of 5/4 (2.25, SportingBet) there doesn’t seem to be much value there. He may have bounced back from his Derby day disappointment, but I’d rather not risk a repeat of that performance.
The value play is clearly Aidan O’Brien’s Declaration Of War, who looks a much healthier price at 5/1 (6.00) with Coral. The trainer has won this race four times in recent years which is an obvious plus, while I suspect that he’ll benefit from a return to 1m.
A quick word on Toronado, the second favourite at a current best price of 13/8 (2.63) with BoyleSports; as much as I like him and have tipped him to win races in the past, he has yet to win a Group 1 and is running out of excuses. At the current odds, I think the colt is poor value, even though I feel he has a big race in him at some point. If he is your selection, I wouldn’t spend too much energy putting you off backing him, it’s simply a question of price.
The 2013 Sussex Stakes
Wednesday July 31st, 15:05
Declaration Of War @ 5/1 (6.00) with Coral
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