Stoke entertain Norwich on Saturday in the Premier League. The Potters ended a four game losing streak at home to Swansea last time out, while Norwich were on the wrong end of a late Ryan Giggs goal which denied them a point against the Champions. Where is the betting value in this tight clash?

 

Advice

Lay Stoke (@ 1.94 Betfair) / Norwich +0.5 Asian Handicap (@ 41/40 Bet365)

 

Stoke belied their recent form to see off Swansea at the Britannia Stadium last weekend, but appear too short in what looks a tight encounter against Norwich. The Potters were on a run of 4 straight League defeats before beating the Swans and are not particularly reliable at home.

There are numerous statistics that show this clash is closer than the match odds suggest. Stoke have won five of thirteen at home this term (39%), likewise Norwich have only been beaten five times on the road (again from 13). Stoke have won just twice in the last 10 League games, while the Canaries have lost only 3 of the last 10. Those defeats were at the hands of Tottenham, Sunderland and Manchester United.

Paul Lambert has a team brimming with confidence and they are not easily rolled over. Grant Holt is netting regularly in the top flight and giving the best defences in the Division problems. After away wins at QPR, Swansea and West Brom since the turn of the year, the Canaries are not intimidated on the road – the Swansea win was just the second time that the Welsh outfit have suffered defeat at the Liberty Stadium.

Verdict

Stoke look too short a price in what is a close match. Odds-on is no value, and keeping the draw on-side with a lay of the hosts (at Betfair), or +0.5 on the Asian Handicap about the visitors (at Bet365) looks the best way to take advantage of the prices.