The Queen Anne Stakes is the Royal Ascot curtain raiser; a Group 1 race over a mile, that has been won by some truly incredible horses in recent times, including Goldikova, Canford Cliffs and of course, Frankel (pictured). This year’s impressive Dubai World Cup winner Animal Kingdom is the hot favourite to join this elite list of Queen Anne winners, but we fancy another Henry Cecil trained beast to spring a surprise…
We’ve checked out the profiles of some of the most recent winners of the Royal Ascot curtain raiser and have picked out some important trends that crop up. Using these, we can thin out the 2013 Queen Anne Stakes field considerably. Here are our findings:
Key Queen Anne Stakes Trends
- All of the last 14 Queen Anne Stakes winners were aged 4 or 5
It’s true that there are usually a few more runners aged 4 and 5 in the race than those aged 6+, but you need to go back to 1976 to find the last Queen Anne winner aged over 5. That’s quite a damning statistic.
- 13 of the last 14 winners of the Queen Anne Stakes had run in 1 or 2 races that season
- 12 of the last 14 winners had raced in the past 40 days
These trends tell us that we should be avoiding a horse that isn’t race sharp, particularly avoiding those horses coming back from a long break.
- 13 of the last 14 Queen Anne Stakes winners had won a 8f or 9f
- 11 of the last 14 winners had won a Group 1 race
Ascot is a stiff test for a horse, so not only is previous form over the Queen Anne distance of a mile important, but slightly further is equally desirable. A majority of winners had also proven their abilities at the highest level; it’s worth noting that the race was promoted to Group 1 status in 2003 and of the 10 winners since then, 9 had won a Group 1 (the one exception came back in 2003).
These trends point us in the direction of just one horse – the Henry Cecil trained filly, Beauty Parlour.
Strictly speaking, that isn’t entirely true, as Godolphin’s Farhh and Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot also qualify as trends horses. But news has broken today that the former is lame and will not make Royal Ascot, while O’Brien is opting to run Camelot in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes instead.
This leaves us with Beauty Parlour who could be overpriced due to the hype around Animal Kingdom (who falls down due to a break of 80 days between his last run and Royal Ascot). The filly looked really classy last term, winning the French 1,000 Guineas before putting in a bold bid when upped in trip for the Prix de Diane, where she finished second.
Since then she’s moved to Henry Cecil, for whom she ran a very disappointing debut race in the Sun Chariot. She then travelled well enough in the Prix d’Ispahan under new jockey Tom Queally, but hung towards the centre of the track and somewhat ruined her chances. Cecil’s team should have worked the talented filly out by now so I’m happy to give her one more chance. Given the hype surrounding the favourite, there’s definitely value to found in the 2013 Queen Anne Stakes field and there’s no reason why it can’t be this 20/1 (21.00) shot with SkyBet.
The 2013 Queen Anne Stakes
Tuesday June 18th, 14:30
Beauty Parlour (Each-Way) @ 20/1 (21.00) with SkyBet
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