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Tonight the winners of the UEFA Champions Leage and Europa Leagues meet in the Super Cup. Two fine teams in Bayern Munich and Chelsea and of course Mourinho v Guardiola revisted.

Recommendations

Draw at 3-1 Bet 365

Under 2.5 goals at 11-10 BoyleSports

Much of the excitement around this game, to be played at the Eden Arena in Prague, centres on another meeting between two of the most successful and charismatic managers in the European game, who met many times in La Liga in recent seasons, Mourinho and Guardiola. Bayern of course beat Dortmund at Wembley to lift the Champions League, Chelsea scored a late Ivanovic goal to beat Benfica and win the Europa League.

Bayern Munich are odds-on favourites for this game as befits the best team in Europe last year but we have already seen with Mourinho’s return to Chelsea how pragmatic a manager he is, for example going to Old Trafford last week and playing with no striker, the so called “false number nine” system introduced by Del Bosque’s Spain and sitting on leads versus Hull City and Aston Villa on early Premier League games

At the same time, the early games of Guardiola’s reign have not been characterised by fluency. Playing a 4-1-4-1 system is a change for Bayern with one of the stand out performers over many seasons Bastian Schweinsteiger now asked to fulfill a holding role.

So far this season, under 2.5 goals as a bet would have come in the last three games for Bayern and two out of three games this season for Chelsea, which evidences some of these factors. This could, and indeed might well be given the team styles and managers who will both taking this game very seriously, be a cagey affair. Bayern for example rested four players in the Bundesliga last weekend in preparation for this game. Yet the Under 2.5 goals are a substantial under-dog (11/10) to Over 2.5 goals in the markets (4/6) which appears to me to represent an opportunity, as does the draw at an attactive 3-1 given Bayern’s odds-on status to win the game

Recommendations

Draw at 3-1 Bet 365

Under 2.5 goals at 11-10 BoyleSports