The final tournament of the Masters series will take place next week, with the fight for the number one spot getting even more intense after Roger Federer won the title in Basel. However, Novak Djokovic will be there to stop the Swiss number one, so a very interesting tournament should be on the cards with plenty on the line for many players.
Who Can Win?
The new scheduling rules mean that the ATP World Tour Finals aren’t going to take place straight after the finals of the Paris Masters, which means that we shouldn’t see any big upsets just because someone will want to rest for that big tournament. That said, some players have already withdrawn from the event citing health reasons, so we’re going to miss Rafael Nadal (who has already ended his 2014 season altogether), Marin Cilic (who wants to get some rest before the big one), and Ernests Gulbis (who might have to make some truly difficult decisions due to his current health problems).
Novak Djokovic is therefore widely seen as the main favorite for the title, especially since he needs to do well in order to secure his spot as the world’s number one, while Roger Federer and Andy Murray are the usual suspects when it comes to guessing who might challenge the Serb. The Scot has played a lot of tennis recently, so backing him looks like a very risky venture. Backing Federer, on the other hand, looks quite reasonable given that he’s in the easier half of the draw, so he’ll be our main and only outright bet for this event.
Apart from the outright bet on Roger Federer, we are also going to suggest four picks in the quarter betting for those of you who like that kind of futures. In the first quarter, Grigor Dimitrov is the natural pick if you want to go against Novak Djokovic in some form, as the Bulgarian did play well in Basel and as he has enough talent to beat both Murray and Djokovic in a single tournament, especially if one of the two doesn’t turn up in the best possible form.
In the second quarter of the draw, our money will be on Kei Nishikori, who should be able to return straight into action with some splendid performances and who has no fatigue to care about. On the other hand, he’s got plenty of motivation to do well over the next couple of days, as a good performance in Paris would do him a lot of good during the ATP World Tour Masters. Apparently, he still needs a few points in order to secure a spot, but he might not need them at all in the end given his current standing.
In the third quarter, we believe that Tomas Berdych will be able to outperform guys like Feliciano Lopez and and Stanislas Wawrinka, as he seems to be head and shoulders above them at the moment and as he would certainly love to do well ahead of the London tournament, for which he should qualify with something to spare unless something completely unexpected happens.
Finally, if you want to go against Roger Federer, a bet on Ivo Karlovic might actually be the way to go. It is a pretty crazy pick and we’ll definitely admit that much, but he nearly beat him in Basel and the fast Paris conditions are bound to give his game another boost, so chances are that he might be the man to take advantage of Federer’s weaknesses if any arise over the next couple of days. The likelihood of the Croat making it through to the semifinals is pretty low, but the odds have been set according and we’d certainly prefer backing Karlovic over bets on, say, Milos Raonic or Fabio Fognini, who haven’t shown that much in recent weeks.
Roger Federer to win Paris Masters 2014 (Best Odds: 4.00 @ Bet365)
Grigor Dimitrov to win his quarter (Best Odds: 9.00 @ Bet365)
Kei Nishikori to win his quarter (Best Odds: 3.50 @ Sky Bet)
Tomas Berdych to win his quarter (Best Odds: 2.37 @ Sky Bet)
Ivo Karlovic to win his quarter (Best Odds: 17.00 @ Sky Bet)