The Group One Nunthorpe Stakes takes place on the Friday of York’s Ebor meeting and sees some of the top sprinters clashing on the Knavesmire. Famous names such as Borderlescott, Kyllachy and Lochsong have won the race over the years and we’ve picked out a three year old (pictured) currently priced at 13/2 (7.50) with Paddy Power that we reckon can add his name to that illustrious list. ..
By looking at recent winners of the Nunthorpe Stakes, we can see exactly what is going to be required of the those amongst the 2013 field. Here are the important trends that were thrown up from our analysis:
Key Nunthorpe Stakes Trends
- All of the last 14 winners of the Nunthorpe Stakes finished in the front 2 of a Class 1 race
- 10 of the last 14 Nunthorpe winners had won at 6f
The first of these Nunthorpe trends tell us that we should be looking at only the classiest of horses, while the second suggests that horses with form over further tend to do well in the race. Of the four exceptions to this trend, two had never actually tried 6f specifically, while the other two had placed in at least 2/3rds of their 6f races.
- 13 of the last 14 winners of the Nunthorpe Stakes had raced in the past 48 days
- 13 of the last 14 Nunthorpe winners had won a race that season
- 12 of the last 14 winners finished at least sixth in a Class 1 race last time out
We can see from these Nunthorpe Stakes trends that we should be looking for a horse that’s not only race sharp and in good form, but in good form at the very highest level.
- 8 of the last 14 winners of the Nunthorpe were aged 4 or younger
- 5 of the last 14 winners were aged 3
There are no extremely strong trends regarding the age of Nunthorpe Stakes winners, but younger horses do hold a slight edge, with 57.14% of winners from 48.45% of the total runners. Three year olds specifically do best of all, having won 35.71% of the past 14 renewals, from just 21.13% of the runners. These trends suggest that we can favour the younger horses.
By applying all of the above trends to the 2013 Nunthorpe Stakes field, we can whittle it down to five main contenders: Hamza, Heerat, Miss Lahar, Moviesta and Slade Power.
Of that little group, we’re going to plump for Bryan Smart’s Moviesta (pictured) as our Nunthorpe Stakes selection, owing in part to the fact that he is the only three year old amongst them and as we have seen, three year olds tend to run well in the race.
But it’s not only his age; he has been in terrific form this summer, winning the Group 2 King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last time out in his first attempt at a Class 1 race, while his two runs prior to that both yielded runner-up finishes in valuable handicap races. Currently available to back at a best price of 13/2 (7.50) with Paddy Power, I have to say that I like those odds a lot.
The 2013 Nunthorpe Stakes
Friday August 23rd, 15:40
Moviesta @ 13/2 (7.50) with Paddy Power
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