Over the first two weeks the bookmakers have got the better of most punters. 15 of 21 teams who were the least backed over the two weeks have won. We are holding our own and turn our attentions to week 3…

Recommendations

Cleveland Browns +2.5 points v Baltimore Ravens 10/11 Coral

New York Giants +2 points v Houston Texans Evens Sportingbet

Arizona Cardinals +2.5 points v San Francisco 49ers 19/20 888Sport

The NFL is a very even league. Each team is competitive and in the early weeks of the 2014 season this has been borne out. NFL teams receiving 40% or less of bets are now 15-6 against the spread this season.

In week three we have the opportunity to back three unloved home underdogs receiving points on the spread against the visiting team.

Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland are 2 point underdogs with Coral at home to divisional rivals the Ravens. This should be a close game. Neither side have prolific offenses and rely on the running game and defense to remain competitive. Cleveland ran Pittsburgh close in the first game then achieved a fantastic result beating the high-powered Saints in week 2 with a last second field-goal. Against an inconsistent side like Baltimore (looked poor against Cincinnati week one, beat Pittsburgh week two) to get the points at home is an interesting play

New York Giants v Houston Texans

The Giants are winless and the Texans unbeaten for the game in New York on Sunday. The Giants are two point underdogs for the game at Evens with Sportingbet.   Akey statistic here is that NFL teams that have won the turnover battle are 24-3 Against the spread this season including 12-0 Against the spread in Week 2. In two weeks the Giants are -6 in turnovers. They out-performed the Cardinals in week two, and lost. Cut out the mistakes, don’t turnover the ball, and they will look a much better team

Conversely the Texans are +5 on turnovers, and are 2-0 without a quarterback and relying on defense and the running game of Arian Foster. They haven’t been behind in a game, so a conservative “ball control” style can work well. This strikes me as a “mean reversion” game

Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers

Arizona are 2.5 point underdogs at home for this NFC West divisional game at 19/20 with 888Sport. They have won both their games this season, the latterly as above against the Giants despite injury to their starting quarterback Carson Palmer. An unfashionable team, unloved by punters, yet with a very competitive roster. The 49ers are the sexier team, who managed to give up a bigt lead to lose at home to the Bears on Sunday night and without key players on defense through injury and suspension are not the cohesive unit they were a year ago. Tey can be opposed as road favourites here.

Recommendations

Cleveland Browns +2.5 points v Baltimore Ravens 10/11 Coral

New York Giants +2 points v Houston Texans Evens Sportingbet

Arizona Cardinals +2.5 points v San Francisco 49ers 19/20 888Sport