Just when they thought that things couldn’t possible go worse, Milwaukee was proven wrong by the hottest team in Major League Baseball. Washington extended its 5 game winning streak and broke the spell that kept them winless at Miller Park for more than a year. The visitors are in excellent position of winning seven games in a row, and fortunately the bookmakers continue to underestimate them.
Bet: Washington Nationals
Odds: bet365 2.20
Last night the odds were slightly lower than today and the reasoning was pretty much the same, with the starting pitcher being the one who tipped the balance in Milwaukee’s favor. Back then, the Brewers had the upper hand on a mental level, because they won the previously eight games in the series, but that advantage is now gone. This leaves us with one single argument in favor of backing the hosts, and personally I don’t like the idea of betting everything on a single hand.
It is a pitchers’ world out there
Without a doubt the starting pitcher is the most important player in any MLB game, but the question is whether the pitcher can single handedly defeat the opponent, or he depends on his teammates. Nobody is more qualified than Mike Fiers to answer this question, because what happened to him this season is borderline unbelievable. He conceded less than two runs per game on average, but he won just three out of seven decisions due to lackluster offensive performance. With an ERA of only 0.76 in over a month he is the most in-form pitcher in the league but this didn’t help him improve his record.
On the other side we have Ross Dewiler who allows an average of three runs per game but can rely on his teammates to back him up when needed. Ross is an excellent pitcher but in this particular duel he is clearly outmatched, still he is the overwhelming favorite to win his sixth decision. The Nationals have scored an average of 7 runs per game this week and conceded exactly 2 runs each match, so they can offset the slight disadvantage in pitching.
Milwaukee will keep Fiers on the mound for as long as they can, but this season he never lasted more than seven innings. This means that even if Mike plays as well as he did so far, there will still be plenty of relievers to undo his work, and the recently lost series against Philadelphia is the perfect example. The Nationals are vastly superior and the fact that bet365 continues to rate them as underdogs despite the evidence is a very pleasant surprise.