Cincinnati won just five of its last ten games, but due to a fortunate turn of events these few victories were enough to bring them atop of MLB standings. While the Reds have the best record in baseball, they are hard pressed to win the series in Arizona against a team that is playing its last cards.

Match: Arizona vs Cincinnati Reds

Bet: Under 7,5 runs

Odds: bet365 2.00

Mired in a four games losing streak, the Diamondbacks have only theoretical chances of winning a wildcard and unless they rebound this week, everything will be lost. They are playing with a sense of urgency and sending Wade Miley to pitch in the opening game is the best thing they can do, as he is arguably the best pitcher in their rotation. He could carry his team to a rare victory, if only his teammates would provide him with slightly more runs of support.

A pitchers’ duel worth watching

Miley won his last match against Cincinnati but with the Diamondbacks scoring 12 runs in the last 5 games, he needs a stellar performance to grab another win. Wade won 14 games so far and has an ERA of 2.80 but conceding 3 runs once again might be too much given his opposition. Johnny Cueto makes another attempt of becoming the first pitcher in the majors to win 17 games and his 1.45 ERA against Arizona is an excellent argument for trusting him tonight.

In conjunction with the hosts’ inability to score, Cueto’s average of two and a half runs conceded per game in 2012 suggests the fact that the Reds are favorites to win this clash. He needs to replicate Bronson Arroyo’s performance as he won the opening match against a toothless offense, while the bullpen conserved the advantage. Justin Upton is the man that can ruin Cincinnati’s party tonight but he is not fully recovered after missing three games in a row with a tight hamstring. Cueto prevented him from scoring last time the two teams met, although over all he is 4 for 12 and scored two homeruns.

BetPal Tip:

Wade Miley is the only one who can win the game for Arizona, but this pitcher alone is good enough to make it risky to back the Reds at odds below evens. Cincinnati barely got away with a victory last night and it is unlikely to have them scoring more runs tonight, against a better pitcher. The best choice betting-wise is the Under 7,5 runs to be scored, a bet that is valued at 2.00 by Bet365.