It was San Diego that brought the Reds’ winning streak to a screeching halt and it is San Diego who will prevent them from winning the first series in over a month. The hosts are regarded as favorites tonight due to the fact that they will have Cueto on the mound, but the Padres are not the underdogs painted by these odds.
Match: Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres
Bet: San Diego Padres
Odds: bet365 2.80
San Diego scored more runs in this series than their opponents despite the fact that it is Cincinnati who leads by two victories to one. The series concludes today and if Ohlendorf can produce another quality outing, the visitors have a good chance to win the game in the final innings. The starting pitcher spent some time on the disabled list and then played a bit in the bullpen, but since he rejoined the rotation in early July he’s been impressive and conceded less than three runs per game.
Injuries plague Cincinnati
The fact that the Reds won 11th consecutive games would be far less impressive if thei best player would’ve been playing in any of those games. Joey Votto is still injury and it is uncertain whether he will return in August, but this is not the only absence that the Reds has to cope with. Brandon Phillips is an invaluable player at second base and he recently joined Joey on the disabled list, further aggravating Cincinnati’s roster problems.
Cueto is the intangible that the hosts are counting on and the reason for why bookmakers favor them in such a manner. He won 13 decisions this year and managed to keep an ERA as low as 2.39 but he wasn’t so sharp in his last outing at Coors Fields. Just like the Great American ballpark, Colorado’s stadium favors the batting staff so we shouldn’t be too surprised if Cueto fails to impress tonight. Normally it would be a mistake to bet on San Diego to score a lot of runs against such an ace pitcher, but in this series the Padres proved to be capable of beating the odds.
The logic behind this bet is simple and unlike most other cases when we are backing the favorites, this time it is wise to bet on the slight underdogs. The odds are unreasonably high and even though the Reds have the first chance to achieve victory, the risks we are taking are greatly compensated by the 2.80 odds offered by bet365. On the long run, it is the punters who know how to seek value in odds that stay profitable, not the ones who blindly back the favorites all the time.