Roger Federer has started his Halle campaign with a comfortable victory over Stebe, but his performance was not as good as many would have wanted it to be and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him struggle against Mischa Zverev on Friday.
Match: Mischa Zverev vs Roger Federer
Selection: Over 18.5 games
Best Odds: 1.80 @ Pinnacle
Of course, it would be crazy to think that he is actually going to lose against the local favourite, but we wouldn’t want to talk about that here, would we? No, we are talking about making Federer work for his victory – and that is something that Zverev is certainly fully capable of doing.
Zverev has been on the big stage before, but he has fallen from it for quite some time and his future is still looking quite uncertain, but one can have only positive words for his performances in the early rounds of this event. Beating Goffin is never an easy thing to do and to follow it up with a solid victory over a very confident opponent is also a superb achievement by all kinds of standards.
However, this bet is not only about Zverev, it is also about Federer being far from his best these days. Yes, he has managed to beat Stebe in two straightforward sets, but he made plenty of errors and allowed Stebe to trouble him on his own serve, which is something that you would not expect him to be doing on his favourite surface. If you keep that in mind, this total games line will start to look quite achievable for Zverev - and the overs will therefore start looking as the value play on Friday. There is some risk involved, of course, but the same could be said about every single bet we are all ever going to take.