While all eyes are firmly focussed on this weekend’s FA Cup third round ties – including those of the bookmakers – we’ve been sniffing around the lower leagues looking for value. As we discussed recently, there’s plenty of football betting value to be found in the lower reaches, particularly when there’s a high profile distraction such as the FA Cup; this weekend is likely to be no different…
This Saturday’s League One fixture between Carlisle United and Leyton Orient looks to be packed with decent betting opportunities.
Leyton Orient could be value at a best price of 4.00 (Coral) as they are in terrific form of late, having lost just twice in their last fifteen league matches, in what is proving to be a very competitive League One season. The Orient have been particularly handy on the road of late, with an away record record fairly similar to the likes of promotion chasers Huddersfield and Sheffield United.
Carlisle were very fortunate to beat Sheffield United in their last fixture – the Blades hit the post three times and the second Carlisle goal was clearly offside – the 3-2 victory ending a run of three consecutive draws. Carlisle’s defence is atrocious though, having conceded 37 goals in their 24 League One matches so far – only six teams in the league have a worse record – including 20 in 11 games at their home ground, Brunton Park.
If Orient play to their potential, then Carlisle look to be there for the taking and Coral‘s 4.00 could look enormous come 17:00 on Saturday. The shortest price about an Orient victory at present is 3.35 (188Bet) and we think that’s a much more appropriate price.
Another bet that could represent value in this particular League One match concerns the Both Teams To Score market. Once more, it’s Coral‘s compilers who look to have taken their eyes off the ball, offering 1.80 about “Yes” – that is both teams scoring at least once in the game. By contrast, Paddy Power go 1.67 about such an outcome, while the rest of the industry are around the 1.73 mark.
There are many reasons to like this bet, not least because Carlisle’s horrific defensive record will surely allow Orient to hit the onion bag at least once, but Carlisle know how to find the net themselves, scoring in each of their last six matches and notching a total of 36 league goals this season.
But here’s the bet of the game, in our eyes – William Hill‘s 1.95 about the match featuring Over 2.5 Goals. 81.80% of League One matches at Brunton Park this season have featured more than 2.5 goals, compared with a divisional average of 49.8%. Considering all of the above information, this really does look like a cracking bet.
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 (William Hill)