Four rounds ago, LA Dodgers and Tampa Bay were tied for the lead in their divisions, but much has changed over the course of one week. The fading Rays are losing sight of Boston, while the Dodgers have consolidated their lead and are huge favorites to win the division.

Match: LA Dodgers vs Tampa Bay

Bet: Over 6.5 runs

Odds: Winner Sports 2.05

Mired in a four games losing streak, Tampa Bay is counting on its potent batting unit to achieve some sort of a miracle against Clayton Kershaw. The starting pitcher has the lowest ERA in baseball at 1.91 and won 10 decisions this season while losing seven. The numbers are a bit puzzling, because although his earned run average is almost 3 times as high, Jeremy Hellickson has been winning decisions of his own.

This situation can easily be explained by looking at the number of runs of support provided to each pitcher, with Tampa Bay being far more generous. Despite the fact that they lost four consecutive games, they scored 27 runs and it is hard to believe that Kershaw will shut them down completely in the final game of the series. On the other hand, the Dodgers are on an offensive roll too and scored 30 runs over the course of four successive victories. Hellickson is unlikely to last more than five innings which means that the struggling bullpen will once again be exposed to a hail of runs.

BetPal Tip:

Winner Sports values the LA Dodgers at 1.50 and the odds are simply too low to back the hosts even with Clayton Kershaw taking the mound. A far better proposition is the over 6.5 runs wager at odds of 2.05 because with two batting units in great shape, something’s got to give and at least one feature we have his ERA affected.