King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes - St Nicholas AbbeyThe current favourite for the 2013 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes is St Nicholas Abbey (pictured) at a best price of just 2/1 (3.00). We believe that it’s worth taking on Aidan O’Brien’s Coronation Cup hero and we’ve found one to oppose him with at juicy looking odds of 10/1 (11.00) with SkyBet. Read on to discover our selection and for the full King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes preview.

By taking a look at recent winners of the prestigious King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, we can attempt to build up a profile of what is required to win the race and see which of the 2013 entrants have followed a similar path. Here are the noteworthy trends:

King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes Trends

Age

  • Just 1 of the last 14 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winners was aged 5 or older

You have to go back 14 years to find a winner of the King George that was older than 4 and it’s not as though they don’t make up a good chunk of the total entrants (around 40%). This trend suggests focusing on the younger horses amongst the 2013 field.

Recent Form

  • 13 of the last 14 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winners finished in the front three last time out
  • 13 of the last 14 winners had run two to four times that season
  • 12 of the last 14 winners of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes posted an RPR of 120+ last time out

We can learn from these trends that our King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes selection should be race sharp but not overworked, and in good form. There is simply no point in hoping that a horse will suddenly hit form for the big Ascot Group 1, particularly if they have had a hard campaign or are returning from a layoff.

Past Form

  • 12 of the last 14 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winners had already scored at 12f

The two exceptions to this particular trend had never attempted the King George trip of 12f, but had both won a Group 1 at 10f. This trend suggests discounting horses that have failed at 1m 4f, but not those yet to attempt the distance; particularly if they have top notch form over 1m 2f.

Summary

Roger Varian’s Ektihaam was running a big race in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot this year, before a cruel slip on the bend saw him catapult jockey Paul Hanagan into the rail, ruining his chances of success in the race. It was a really unfortunate occurrence and the former champion jockey believes that his horse would have won the race. Having watched it at the time and again since, I completely agree; in fact I reckon he’d have won really well.

Due to the freakish nature of that race, I discounted it from my trends analysis, treating it from Ektihaam’s point of view as though it never happened. None of the other entrants amongst the 2013 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth field meet all of the above trends, but if you scrub the Hardwicke, Varian’s four year old gelding most certainly does.

He may not have won a Group 1 yet, but then he’s not contested one aged 4. Aside from the Harwicke, he’s only raced in one Group 2 race, last year’s Dante Stakes where he finished a close second to Bonfire, so it’s not as though he completely lacks top class form. His form at Ascot is also a positive; 1 from 1 (again discounting the Hardwicke, which I’m convinced he would have won anyway).

With all of that in mind, I think that the current best price of 10/1 (11.00) with SkyBet is a little insulting. Don’t get me wrong, there are some top class horses in the race, but for me, Ektihaam is a serious Each-Way contender for the 2013 King George.

Advice

The 2013 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes
Saturday July 27th, 15:50

Ektihaam (Each-Way) @ 10/1 (11.00) with SkyBet

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