The prestigious Group 1 July Cup, run over 6f of Newmarket’s July Course, takes place on Saturday July 13th 2013 and we’ve picked out a couple of classy sprinters that look to have a strong chance of winning the race. Currently best priced at 6/1 (7.00) and 10/1 (11.00) respectively with Ladbrokes, to find out their names you’ll have to read on…
We’ve analysed recent winners of Newmarket’s July Cup in order to build up a profile of what it takes to win the Group 1 sprint. Here are the trends that emerge from that analysis:
Key July Cup Trends
- All of the last 14 July Cup winners had run in the past 30 days
- 12 of the last 14 winners ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 11 of the last 14 winners posted their best ever RPR in the past 3 runs
We can glean from these trends that our July Cup selection should be race sharp and in top form.
- 13 of the last 14 July Cup winners had already scored over 6f or 7f
- 11 of the last 14 winners had already landed a Group race
These trends tell us that we need to be looking for a horse with a certain degree of class, as well as proven form over the trip.
- Just 1 of the last 14 winners of the July Cup was aged 6 or older
In the past 14 years, 47 horses aged six or above have lined up in the race from a total attendance of 215 (21.86% of entrants). Despite this, just 7.14% of winners in that time came from this age group, a trend that suggests we ought to be focusing on the younger July Cup entrants.
Applying these trends to the 2013 July Cup field allows us to whittle it down to four horses: the Clive Cox trained pair Reckless Abandon and Lethal Force, David Simcock’s Glass Office and Ballydoyle inmate Gale Force Ten.
For me, the best July Cup bets have to be the first pair of horses. Glass Office is surely not good enough to win the race – although he’s won a Group 3 on the All Weather, he’s yet to even win a Class 2 race on the turf and I think he’ll need to improve a lot on his fifth in the Wokingham to land this. Gale Force Ten has the class to win and won sprints in his two year old career, but this is an Irish Guineas runner up and Jersey Stakes winner we’re talking about; You have to wonder if he’s more effective over further these days.
The Clive Cox duo are definitely the ones for me in the 2013 July Cup. Lethal Force (pictured) is currently the favourite for the race at a best price of 6/1 (7.00) with Ladbrokes and it’s easy to see why. The way he won the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot was impressive and if he runs at Newmarket, it’s hard to see past him. Clive Cox did express reservations immediately after that race about heading to the July Cup and although he seems more keen at the moment, he has still spoken of “slight concerns” over the track.
With that in mind, it’s definitely worth having a saver on Reckless Abandon, just in case they opt not to run Lethal Force. It seems unlikely that neither of his pair will line up in the July Cup and he’s a classy horse in his own right, having won a Group 1 over course and distance at two. He ran well enough in the King’s Stand last time out and he has plenty of big race wins ahead of him – perhaps this could one, at a juicy 10/1 (11.00) with Ladbrokes?
The 2013 Darley July Cup
Saturday July 13th, 15:50
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