After a disappointing weekend in Singapore, Mercedes will be hoping to get back to form at Suzuka this weekend for the Japanese Grand Prix

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Lewis Hamilton to win at 5/6 William Hill

Sebastian Vettel’s third victory of the year at Singapore means he is now less than 50 points behind Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship and only eight behind his team-mate Nico Rosberg. Hamilton failed to finish in Malaysia, his first failure of the season, and Rosberg only managed fourth behind Red Bull‘s Daniel Riccardo and Kimi Raikkonen.

Mercedes struggled with the Singapore circuit but normal service should be resumed at Suzuka where their pace should once again come to the fore on a faster track. Vettel has an impressive record at Suzuka, with four wins in six races but all before current regulations were applied. Ferrari continue to have the second best car to Mercedes and should be in contention for at least podium spots whilst behind them Williams, consistently behind the Red Bulls at Singapore in conditions that minimised the red bull power disadvantage and maximized their handling capabilities in low speed corners, but that should reverse here.

There is rain forecast again this weekend, a common occurrence at Suzuka, which could disrupt practice, qualifying and the race itself. This introduces a random element to proceedings that indicates caution in betting markets on the race.

Three weeks ago, before the Singapore retirement, Lewis Hamilton was 1-2 to win the Italian Grand Prix before the race weekend opened and duly won the race. Last year at Suzuka the Mercedes cars qualified 1 and 2 and won the race by 30 seconds. On a non-street circuit where the power advantage of the Mercedes relative to the field is not compromised, we should see a reversion to a more usual qualification and race pattern.

Whilst suzuka isn’t as power hungry as monza is, its more “normalised” conditions than a street circuit with high barriers at night when mercedes couldn’t sort out their tyres and aerodynamics. There was nothing in the hamilton retirement that was engine related in the broken clamp, so he goes to suzuka with the upgraded package and an engine a race and a half old. Yet he is 5/6 to win the race with William Hill, not the 1-2 he was at Monza. This is a rare example of Mercedews value this season, with negative recency bias large in the 5/6 price

Recommendation

Lewis Hamilton to win at 5/6 William Hill