York’s Group One International Stakes, sponsored by Juddmonte, has been won by some of the sport’s truly great horses over the years. Names like Troy, Sea The Stars and of course Frankel (pictured) have all claimed this particular crown. But which of the 2013 entrants will add their name to the roll of honour? We’ve picked out an 11/2 (6.50) chance with Coral that we think can do just that…
By looking over the recent winners of York’s Juddmonte International Stakes we can build up a profile and see just what it takes to win this prestigious Group One race. This information can then be applied to the 2013 field in order to help us find the winner. Here are the important trends that we spotted:
Key Juddmonte International Stakes Trends
- All of the last 14 International Stakes winners had run two or more times that season
- 13 of the last 14 winners won or placed last time out
These two Juddmonte International Stakes trends suggest that we need an in form horse that’s race sharp. Look to avoid any horses returning from a lay-off, such as Kingsbarns.
- 12 of the last 14 International Stakes winners had already won a Group 1 race
- 12 of the last 14 winners had won over 10f or further
These trends clearly indicate that we should be looking for a horse with proven form at this level and over this stamina testing trip.
Applying the above trends to the 2013 Juddmonte International Stakes field reduces it to just three stand out contenders: the odds on favourite Al Kazeem, Irish Derby winner Trading Leather and Aiden O’Brien’s Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World.
A winner of three Group One races already this season, it’s hard to look past Roger Charlton’s five year old Al Kazeem, but at a current best price of just 10/11 (1.91) with BetVictor (and basically 4/5 or 1.80 everywhere else) it’s probably worth looking elsewhere for an Each-Way interest in the race.
I think that Ruler Of The World is overpriced at 8/1 (9.00) with the majority of bookmakers as Derby winning three year olds traditionally have a decent record in the Juddmonte International, but O’Brien has a total of four runners in the race and is keeping his cards close to his chest about who will actually run. Given that the Irish Champion Stakes has also been mentioned as a possibility for the horse, any bets placed for the International Stakes should be done on the day of the race as antepost bets will be lost should they opt to swerve the York Group One.
Perhaps a safer play is Jim Bolger’s Irish Derby winner Trading Leather, at a current best price of 11/2 (6.50) with Coral. The three year old colt followed up his success at the Curragh with a decent second place behind the impressive Novellist in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (the winner broke the course record that day) to boost his International Stakes credentials, while his trainer recently dubbed him “the best staying three-year-old around”. Bolger added to that comment that he had emerged fine and well from his Ascot run and that he will definitely run at York, all being well.
Remember to keep stakes to a minimum, as it’s going to be a tough ask to beat the favourite, but if anything is capable of doing so, it’s Trading Leather.
The 2013 International Stakes
Wednesday August 21st, 15:50
Trading Leather (Each-Way) @ 11/2 (6.50) with Coral
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