Lewis Hamilton won the Great Britain Grand Prix last time out in an exciting race. Now this weekend the Hungarian Grand Prix.

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Daniil Kvyat Top Six finish 5/2 Ladbrokes

Lewis Hamilton is once again the clear favorite in this race at 1/2 followed by team-mate Nico Rosberg at 9/4, 14/1 bar the two Mercedes drivers.

The Hungaroring is a tight track where overtaking has always proved a challenge meaning that the contest for pole position at this circuit is extremely important, as it will be the prime influence on the outcome of the race.

With the Mercedes having qualified on pole position in every race this year and still up to three quarters of a second quicker than the field it seems unlikely that any other team will prevent a Mercedes win here.

Conditions are almost invariably dry in mid summer near Budapest and the major challenge is the heat and tyre wear. As long as Mercedes manage that, and on the only occasion they struggled to do so Ferrari won in Malaysia, then they should come home in front again.

Hamilton has won five races this year and he has not finished worse than third in any single race this season. Rosberg has three wins this year and he also hasn’t finished worse than third in any race.  Sebastian Vettel  is third in the standings and has finished in the top five in every race. Ferrari have had a bigger challenge from Williams, who led at Silverstone for a long way and so podium betting on the Ferrari drivers is trickier than it was, and taking prices as short as 1/2 on Vettel to podium doesn’t appear sensible. Backing him each way to win in Hungary is likely to require some reliability issues from one of the Mercedes pair too. Williams are currently third in the constructor’s championship with 151 points. They have been in form of late, scoring a total of 70 points in the last three rounds – 17 more than second-placed side Ferrari during that stretch.

With little value at the front of the field there is more interest for me in sub-markets and middle of the field teams. Here the battle between RedBull, Force India, Lotus and Toro Rosso is intense with Force India in particular having a very encouraging outing at Silverstone with their upgraded car. Lotus have tended to flatter to deceive all season, showing pace in practice but suffering a variety of problems in races from reliability to incidents.

As for the Renault powered cars, they have been up against it all season due to their power deficit. Ricciardo won this race last year for Red Bull and is  currently in seventh place in the driver’s championship with 36 points. His best result was fifth place at the Monaco Grand Prix.

Whilst Hungary isn’t quite as tight as Monaco, its one of the nearest approximations on the race calendar in terms of style of track.  The effects of superior horsepower are lower than they are at the quick tracks and it gives a team like RedBull in their current configuration a shot at being competitive with the non works Mercedes teams.

Ricciardo is best priced 9/4 to finish in the top six in Hungary. Obviously backing any driver to do so outside the Mercedes, Ferrari and Williams teams will require one of those six drivers to hit a problem, and accounts for why we are getting odds-against in this market. Ricciardo’s team mate Daniil Kvyat is 5/2 for a top six finish. He finished fourth in Monaco and sixth last time out at Silverstone.

There is not much between these drivers and if anything Kvyat is driving with more confidence than his team-mate. On this tight track, which accentuates the positives for the Red Bull and minimises the negatives, 5/2 is a sporting price on him for a top six finish

Recommendation

Daniil Kvyat Top Six finish 5/2 Ladbrokes