The 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup is a competitive looking renewal, but there is one gelding (pictured) amongst the current crop of entries that has exactly the right sort of profile required to win the race. Trained by Paul Nicholls and currently priced up at 10/1 (11.00) with Stan James, the seven year old has been described as “a proper horse” by his trainer, who has targeted this race since last season. Read on to discover our Hennessy Gold Cup betting tip…
We’ve looked over the profiles of recent Hennessy Gold Cup winners and picked out the important trends, which can then be used to help us select our 2013 bet. Here are our findings:
Key Hennessy Gold Cup Trends
- 11 of the last 12 Hennessy Gold Cup winners were aged 6 to 8
- 6 of the last 12 winners were aged 7
These trends are quite self-explanatory; 7 year olds have an especially good record in the race, but we should focus our quest for the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup winner on the 6 to 8 range.
- All of the last 12 Hennessy Gold Cup winners were officially rated at least 140
- Just 1 of the last 12 winners had contested more than five handicap chases
The Hennessy is a competitive race and it makes sense that we need to find a top quality horse, but equally we should look to avoid any horses that are too exposed and therefore likely to be within the grip of the handicapper.
- All of the last 12 winners of the Hennessy Gold Cup had won a Class 2 race or better
- 11 of the last 12 Hennessy Gold Cup winners had won over 25f or further
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the front 3 of their last completed race
- 9 of the last 12 winners had won 50% of their chase starts
These trends show that we need an in-form horse with plenty of ability, especially over testing distances of greater than three miles.
The one horse amongst the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup entrants that perfectly fits all of these trends is the Paul Nicholls trained 7 year old Rocky Creek. Currently rated a 10/1 (11.00) chance with Stan James, the gelding is amongst the favourites to win the race and it’s easy to see why.
A winner of four good chases to date, include the Reynoldstown last season, Nicholls has targeted this race for Rocky Creek for a long time and speaks highly of the gelding. Way back in January, Nicholls called him “a proper horse” and said that he was looking forward to the Hennessy. He has the right sort of profile to win this race and he rates a good value bet.
There are a few others amongst the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup entrants that I also like, despite putting up Rocky Creek as my selection. RSA Chase winners have a strong record in the Hennessy (3 of the 6 RSA Chase winners to line up in Hennessy in the past 12 years have won) and Lord Windermere only falls down on the ‘won 50% of chases’ trend, having finished second on three occasions. Currently priced up at 14/1 (15.00) with Stan James, I found it hard to choose between him and Rocky Creek.
I would also given an Each-Way shout to the Venetia Williams gelding Katenko (if he runs), who fell down on the same trend (but has won 2 of his 3 British chase starts). He destroyed the Murphy Group Chase field which included some top horses, continuing his rapid progression and earning quotes of 33-1 for this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Also priced up at 14/1 (15.00) currently with BetVictor, he could potentially line up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup instead.
The 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup
Saturday 30th November, 15:00
Rocky Creek @ 10/1 (11.00) with Stan James