For our second Glorious Goodwood 2012 preview, we’ll take a look at the Stewards’ Cup, whose weights were published today. We’ve picked out two horses that look interesting in the early antepost market and recommend small stakes Each-Way bets about the pair – including a Ralph Beckett (pictured) trained 50/1 (51.00) shot with Bet365.


Ralph Beckett

Key Trends

So let’s take a look at the winners of the last twelve renewals of Glorious Goodwood’s Stewards’ Cup, in order to build up a profile of the likely winner. We can then pick out those horses with similar profiles, from the 130 that are currently entered.

Official Rating

  • 9 of the last 12 Stewards’ Cup winners were officially rated 93 to 102
  • 8 of the last 12 winners carried between 8st 9lb and 9st 3lbs

In the last twelve years, around half of the runners carried between 8st 9lb and 9st 3lbs, but this range is responsible for two thirds of the winners, so this weight range is clearly where we should be focusing our attention. Just one Stewards’ Cup winner has carried home less than 8st 8lbs in the last twelve years, despite around a quarter of the runners falling into this range, so there is a clear bias towards the top of the handicap.

In terms of official ratings, Hoof It’s win off a mark of 111 last year broke the record for most weight carried to victory in the Stewards’ Cup – clearly a blip – while 9 of the other 11 horses were rated between 93 and 102. This seems like a good range to concentrate on in the quest for the winner.

Age

  • All of the last 12 Stewards’ Cup winners were aged 4, 5 or 6

Horses aged seven or older have a woeful record in Glorious Goodwood’s Stewards’ Cup, and only once in the last 28 years has a three year old succeeded. The trends suggest that horses aged four, five and six are where we should focus, with a marginal preference for five year olds.

Recent Form

  • 11 of the last 12 Stewards’ Cup ran in a Class 2 or higher last time out
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had raced in the 25 days leading up to the Stewards’ Cup
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won at least once that season, before heading to Goodwood

These trends suggest that we should be looking for a race sharp and in-form horse, of a certain level of ability.

Draw

  • 8 of the last 12 Stewards’ Cup winners were drawn in stalls 10 – 19

Obviously it’s a little early for us to have this information, but it’s still good to know, in case you would rather wait until nearer the the day of the race before placing your Stewards’ Cup bets.

David Nicholls

  • David Nicholls has trained 3 of the last 12 Stewards’ Cup winners

It’s also worth noting the impressive record of David Nicholls in this race. In the last twelve years, he’s had 53 runners, eleven of which have finished in the front three, with three of those actually winning.

Summary

Two horses that I quite like the look of at this early stage are Alben Star and Oasis Dancer.

Ralph Beckett’s Oasis Dancer could be overpriced at a whopping 50/1 (51.00) with Bet365, if the five year old can convert his recent all weather form to the turf. He didn’t set the world ablaze in the Wokingham, but he was dropped 3lbs after that run and could sneak into the places.

Richard Fahey’s four year old Alben Star was much better in the Wokingham, finishing ninth, but only around three lengths off the winner. He’s a consistent sort, with lots of 1s and 2s in the form book and although he may want it on the softer side, the way the British summer has been so far, that might not be a bad thing. Totesport‘s 16/1 (17.00) seems a fair price to me.

Advice

The Stewards’ Cup
Saturday 4th August 2012, 15:40

Alben Star (Each-Way) @ 17.00 (Totesport)
Oasis Dancer (Each-Way) @ 51.00 (Bet365)

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