Boom And Bust & Hayley Turner win the 2011 Totesport Mile at GoodwoodBookmakers began pricing up the first races of Glorious Goodwood 2012 yesterday, so we’re going to dip our toe into the murky water that is the Betfred Mile nice and early. Formerly known as the Golden Mile, this Heritage Handicap has changed its title many times in recent years due to sponsorship and was won last year (as the Totesport Mile) by Marcus Tregoning’s Boom And Bust, who bids for a repeat in 2012. But will he become the first horse to win back-to-back titles…?

Key Trends

So let’s dive straight into the building up the profile of a Betfred Mile winner by analysing some big race trends.

Draw

  • 10 of the last 12 Betfred Mile winners were drawn in the five stalls nearest the inside rail

One the most crucial trends emerging from Glorious Goodwood’s Betfred Mile concerns the draw. There is something of a draw bias over a mile at Goodwood anyway, but it seems especially prominent in this race, where 10 of the last 12 winners were drawn in stalls 1-5 and 8 of the last 12 were drawn 1-4. (Don’t worry – this data reflects the 2011 changes regarding numbering of the stalls!)

However, as good as we are at providing winning horse racing tips, we can’t predict the future. We’ll still try to identify some value horses with good profiles, but you may well prefer to wait until the draw has been done before betting on the Betfred Mile.

Official Rating

  • All of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 87 and 106

This range is a good starting point, but the 87 may well have been a blip. 6 of the last 12 winners were rated 90 to 99 and five were rated 100+, with nearly half as many runners as the 90 to 99 band. This suggests that we should prefer the higher rated horses in this band.

Recent Form

  • All of the last 12 Betfred Mile winners ran in a Class 3 race or better last time out
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had raced in the past 34 days
  • 9 of the last 12 had contested between 3 and 6 races that season

Our Betfred Mile selection should clearly be race fit but not too lightly raced, and we can clearly rule out the total donkeys as all of the last 12 winners ran in a Class 3 or better before heading to Glorious Goodwood.

Career Form

  • All of the last 12 Betfred Mile winners had won over 8f or 9f
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had tried Listed or Group races
  • 10 of the last 12 winners preferred to race prominently

Most Betfred Mile winners race prominently and have top class experience, while all of them come to Goodwood with winning form over the trip already in the book.

Summary

With so much time between now and the start of Glorious Goodwood 2012, it’s tough to apply all of the above trends to the current 70 strong field. But we can certainly thin it out somewhat and make some educated guesses. I’ve picked out two horses that I think have strong profiles and that could represent real value come the day of the race.

Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor has a tidy record in the Betfred Mile, having saddled three horses to date who finished 1st, 2nd and 6th, and His 102 rated Con Artist looks one to keep onside. Having recently been tried over 10f in Listed company, he might well relish the drop back to 8f, but he does have other entries so may not run. But that’s the beauty of antepost betting and is the reason you can get 26.00 (25/1) from William Hill.

Another Betfred Mile candidate that I like the look of is Mick Channon’s Arnold Layne, a three year old who is also rated a 26.00 (25/1) shot by Bet365. Having started out sprinting, he appeared to relish the step up to a mile, winning a Class 2 handicap on debut. Channon has since thrown him in to a couple of Group 1 races where the colt has struggled, but they clearly they think highly of him.

The Betfred Mile
Friday 3rd August 2012, 15:10

Con Artist (Each-Way) @ 26.00 (William Hill)
Arnold Lane (Each-Way) @ 26.00 (Bet365)

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