A successful tip for at the British Grand Prix last weekend with Mark Webber recovering from a poor start to finish second to Nico Rosberg, recommended each way at 10-1. This weekend, the German Grand Prix at the Nurburgring

Recommendation

Winning car at the German Grand Prix:Mercedes at 2-1 bwin

Of course the major story at Silverstone, aside from Rosberg’s late win with Vettel’s retirement was the multiple tyre failures and the controversy that followed.

Pirelli has announced that it will strengthen its tyres at this weekend’s German Grand Prix to try to avoid a repeat of the six blowouts seen at Silverstone. The rear tyres’ internal belt will be made of Kevlar at the Nurburgring rather than the usual steel.

Then for the Hungarian Grand Prix at the end of July, Pirelli will revert to its 2012 construction, which is different to that used this year.

This is interesting from a betting point of view becuase it changes a major dynamic that has informed betting markets for every race in 2013, namely the very difference performances of the major teams on the current Pirelli compound

A move back to last years tyres favours Red Bull (fastest team last year, with the best aerodynamic design) and Mercedes (much quicker car this year, no longer to be hamstrung by rear tyres) and by contrast affects Lotus and to a lesser extent Ferrari who designed around this years tyres….

I would say, accepting that F1 variables are many and unpredictable as Vettel found this past weekend, that a move back to 2012 tyres might make Mercedes favourites for any race from here on out for the rest of the season. Interestingly Christian Horner of Red Bull did PR this week where he said “Mercedes are very much back in the Championship hunt”

With regard to the the Kevlar-belted tyre that Pirelli wished to introduce from Canada but was prevented from doing, and is now introduced, it will have the side effect of reducing rear temperatures by around 10-deg C. This will be of enormous help to Mercedes, giving it a much better chance of maintaining its dazzling qualifying form into the races – possibly to such an extent that we may see one or both of the Mercedes drivers coming back at Vettel in the championship.

In terms of betting opportunities, the clear pace of the field will be Mercedes and Red Bull and with Alonso’s Ferrari lacking pace in recent races and unlikely to see the performance benefit from the new tyres that Mercedes sees we should be looking to support the fastest teams here

In the “Winning Car” Market Red Bull are priced at 11/10 and Mercedes 2/1. To my mind this understates what is basically a coin flip between the two teams. We can back Mercedes at 2-1 and get either driver, without the risk of backing the wrong “horse”. I See the 2/1 disappearing if Mercedes get pole and two on front two rows as they should do at the Nurburgring.

Longer term, if I am right, markets will be priced with Mercedes as favourites ahead of each Grand Prix in the second half of the year, and we should act before the market moves to this position

Recommendation

Winning Car at the German Grand Prix: Mercedes at 2-1 bwin