A dramatic tournament concludes on Sunday with the 2014 World Cup Final between Germany, who won their semi in astonishing fashion and Argentina, who needed penalties to win a much more tactical semi-final.

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Argentina 13/5 bwin

Half Time Draw/Full Time Argentina at 6-1 BetVictor

This is a battle between the side that has emerged as the best team of the 2014 World Cup, Germany, and an Argentinian side containing the best player of his generation, Lionel Messi.

The immediate advantages seem to lie with the Germans. Astonishing 7-1 winners over Brazil, with the game won after half an hour and with twenty four hours more rest than their opponents who played 120 minutes in a far tighter semi-final. Thus in what we might have previously expected to be a very tight betting heat Germany are installed as 11/8 favourites with Argentina available at 13/5.

This column tipped Germany each-way before the tournament at 6-1 as a side that might improve beyond their odds, but the fact remains that they have only performed very well in two out of their six games. We also have to ask a question about the semi final. Germany were good, but how bad were Brazil, particularly defensively? Of course the effect of such a drubbing is to shorten Germany in betting markets, yet it is highly unlikely that they will face such ineptitude in the final from tough opponents.

Meanwhile, when we look at Argentina its difficult to get too inspired about their World Cup performances. Moments of Messi brilliance aside the side has been workmanlike and no more, a far cry from the performances expected from an all-star line up. That said, they are very good tactically and very capable of setting up to always frustrate their opponents, such as in their semi-final performance led by one of the under-rated stars of the tournament Javier Mascherano who shields what looks to be a suspect central defensive partnership who defended very deep and prevented thelikes of Robben having a single chance on goal.

Avoiding the outright market, as though I would want to re-confirm the ante-post and back Germany again struggle to do so at a short price, the firm suggestion must be that this might be a cagey affair, as much because of the way Argentina set-up and the excellent performances of Hummels and, now restored to full-back, Lahm who are likely to keep Messi in check as their first priority. However this is firmly expected, as under 2.5 goals is a prohibitive 1/2.

So, if we expect a tight game, where Germany will struggle to break down Argentina, who themselves may be capable of a goal out of nowhere, the suggestion here is to look at the Half-time/Full-time market, and look at the Draw at half-time and a result at full-time. Merely because of the value on offer, the 6-1 available with BetVictor on Draw/Argentina is an interesting bet.

The whole market expects Germany to win, but I don’t think their semi-final holds much relevance. Lets be contrarian, and back Argentina at 13/5 in what would be an unheard of price for a final only a few days ago

Recommendations

Argentina 13/5 bwin

Half Time Draw/Full Time Argentina at 6-1 BetVictor