Everton host West Brom in the Premier League this weekend, with the Blues sitting 9th in the table and the Baggies down in 14th. With only 4 points separating the teams however, there is still betting value to be had in this potentially tight encounter.
Everton are worthy favourites in this one, but any odds-on price is far too short and there is certainly value in taking them on. The Blues have won 6 of 15 at home (A strike rate of 40%), and while they have recorded eye catching wins against Chelsea and Manchester City, they have also been held recently by Blackburn and Sunderland, and defeated by Bolton, QPR and Stoke.
While the Toffee’s home form does not justify the short quotes, the visitor’s away pedigree makes the prices look even worse. Albion have been turned over 5 times out of 15 road trips (33%). Hardly push-overs. They have notched decent wins away at Stoke, Newcastle and Aston Villa, and their overall away record is comparable with sides hunting down Champions League qualification.
Recent form backs up the theory that the home side are too small in the match odds market – Everton have won 4 of the last 12 in the League, the Baggies have lost 4 of the last 10.
In addition to the bare statistics, there is another reason to take on the home side. David Moyes and his men secured an FA Cup semi-final berth in midweek, and not only could that tough away encounter with Sunderland lead to an element of fatigue, but with the Wembley showpiece against Liverpool to look forward to in a couple of weeks, the focus of the home side may be elsewhere. With Premier League survival already assured, FA Cup dreams are more exciting than a bread and butter League clash with WBA.
Everton at Goodison Park are worthy jollies. Odds-on however is far too short and anything below evens can be laid with full confidence that a solid value bet has been struck. For those not comfortable ‘laying’, Bet365’s Asian Handicap market has WBA +0.5 at 39/40 and that still offers some margin.