Tim Krul Newcastle UnitedEverton host Newcastle on Saturday with the visitors keen for the win that could propel them into Europe’s elite competition next year. The hosts are undefeated in 8 however, and want to hang on to 7th spot. Where is the betting value in this one?

Advice

Under 2.5 goals Evens @ Bet365

Everton v Newcastle United Form Guide

The defences of both teams have been the foundation for their impressive seasons. Everton have conceded just 8 goals in their last 9 games – 4 of those coming in the enthralling draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United. The Toffee men boast the second best home defensive record in the League, behind only leaders Manchester City.

Newcastle United meanwhile, are equally tight. Only 9 goals have gone in against them during the last 11 games – again, a single aberration at Wigan accounts for 4 of those. They have 5 clean sheets in the last 7 games, including clashes with both Chelsea and Liverpool.

It is of little surprise then, that the trend for both teams of late has been for games featuring Under 2.5 goals. For Everton, 7 of the last 12 have been ‘unders’ (58%), while for the Magpies, 5 of the last 7 have seen 2 goals or fewer (71%). Given those trends, a best price of Evens about Under 2.5 goals seems a little on the generous side.

Betting verdict

Given the recent defensive performances of both teams, a low scoring, tight affair looks favourite. The even money on Under 2.5 goals (Bet365) looks to offer a fair slice of value.