The final pool games this weekend to decide who makes the quarter-finals. Five Pool winners and the three best runners up progress, with the quarter final line up seeing the number 1 seed play the number 8 seed and so on

Recommendations

Ospreys to beat Exeter Chiefs 11/10 Bet365

Toulon -4.5 points to beat Bath 10/11 Bet365

Three of the five pool winners are decided. They are, in current seed order, Saracens, Leicester and Racing 92

The other two groups are close with Wasps or Toulon and Ospreys or Clermont to win the groups. The two who miss out this weekend are battling with Stade Francais, Ulster, Northampton and Exeter for the final three spots.

The key games this weekend are:

Ospreys v Exeter 3.15pm GMT Sunday

Ospreys lead Clermont by two points going into the final game but the likelihood is that Clermont will get a bonus point win against Bordeaux at home so a win here for the Welsh side will be required to top the group. Ospreys are in this position thanks to a 21-13 comeback win against Clermont last weekend, a great result for one of the surprise stories of this year’s competition.

What will work in Ospreys favour here is that Exeter are banged up. A second string team lost 34-27 in Bordeaux last weekend and several of their best players (Henry Slade, Luke Cowan-Dickie, Dave Ewers, Jack Nowell, all of whom would be in contention for the England team) are all missing for a period.

Exeter are well organised though, with a big pack and second in the Aviva Premiership but the Ospreys should have a bit too much. The game is priced as a handicap puick em but Bet365 offer the Ospreys at 11/10.

Bath v Toulon 3.15pm GMT Sunday

Toulon have crept home in successive home games, first beating Bath 12-9 then requiring a last-play-of-the-game try to beat Wasps 15-11 last weekend to ensure they go into these final pool games leading the pool by a point from Wasps. They have to consider it likely that Wasps will get a bonus point win at home to Leinster so a bonus point win at Bath, whose hopes of qualification ended when they lost in Dublin last weekend, is going to be required to top the group.

If Wasps (bonus point win this weekend) and Toulon (win but no bonus point) finish on 19 points each, Wasps have the tie-breaker as the combined score from the two pool games between the teams is 43-21 in Wasps’ favour.

The French heavyweights have throughly underwhelmed this season, so much so that their points difference is actually negative, despite having won four games out of five. Their sole loss was, the complete dismantling by Wasps at the Ricoh Arena – the English side have in fact scored exactly double the number of points that Toulon have in Europe this season.

This weekend then Toulon need to really fire, their star-studded line up hasn’t gelled in part due to limited practice time due to rugby world cup disruptions. In their favour, Bath have underperformed all year too with only 3 wins in 8 games in the Aviva Premiership having finished runners-up last season

Toulon are 4/7 outright to win, Bath 6/4 and Toulon -4 on the handicap. Weather permitting this could be high-scoring, and Toulon less an unconverted try on the handicap should be supported with Bet365.

Recommendations

Ospreys to beat Exeter Chiefs 11/10 Bet365

Toulon -4.5 points to beat Bath 10/11 Bet365