Leinster v Saracens at St James’ Park Newcastle. The final takes place on Saturday 11th May at 5pm
The two pre-eminent European franchises of recent seasons meet in the final. Leinster are defending champions, with the core of the Ireland national side notably Sexton at fly half. Saracens including several world class players like Farrell, Itoje and Vunipola, won the title in the two years previous and have made three of the last five finals.
Leinster reached the final, both games in the Aviva stadium in Dublin beating Ulster in a close quarter final and Toulouse by 18 points in the semi final.
Saracens thrashed Glasgow in their quarter final at home, scoring 56 points and winning by 29 points, then in Coventry beating Munster by 16 points scoring over 30.
This of course should be a close game and this is reflected in the outright market where beat prices are Saracens 10/11 (BetVictor and Paddy Power) and Leinster Evens (Coral and Bet365). Saracens are one point favourites on the point spread at 10/11, generally available.
So for what is virtually a “pick em” match, in what direction should we go? Leinster are pre-eminent in the aerial game and are difficult to play against In their semi-final they stifled the Toulouse offloading game very effectively. Saracens’ game is all about power. Both sides are efficient rather than hugely exciting, but both extremely good at what they do. Both sides have world class goal-kickers.
I expect the game to be decided by one score, maybe as little as a three point penalty either way. I tend towards Saracens at 10/11 as being the route to bet.