The second Euro 2012 Semi final takes place on June 27th where Germany will take on Italy. The Germans have impressed many observers over recent months and are favourites to make the final, but Italy know how to spoil a party and have plenty of experience in their ranks. Who will be heading to Kiev for the July 1st Final?
Over 2.5 Goals 6/4 (2.5) with Totesport
With plenty of Euro 2012 games finishing with under 3 goals (17 of the 28 matches so far), a punt on a high scoring semi-final needs some compelling evidence to back it up. Germany however, provide that evidence.
The Germans have been involved in plenty of high scoring games over the last 12 months, including a 6-2 result with Austria during qualifying, and a 5-3 win over Switzerland in a May friendly. There is much to admire about the fire power at the disposal of Joachim Loew, but his defence has not matched up to the striking department, conceding in 11 of the last 14 games.
The Quarter final against Greece highlighted some of the shortcomings of the German rearguard. Seemingly in complete control of the game, the back four were caught napping and Samaras was able to pinch an equaliser. The late Greek penalty may have been harsh on the victors, but it was still the fourth goal conceded at the Championships thus far.
The Italians also struggle for clean sheets, and a rampant German team will be keen to get stuck into a squad that was taken to extra time just 4 days ago, especially given they had additional rest themselves – indeed Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller and Mario Gomez have not played since the final group game against Holland, and will be desperate to ensure they are first choice for any potential final birth.
While Italy have not been efficient in front of goal, against a defence which has a tendency to switch off, they can take advantage and continue the trend for high scoring Germany matches.
Euro 2012 Tip
6/4 (2.5) (at Totesport) looks fair value for Overs in a match that involves the Germans. The pressure of a major semi-final has to be considered, but Joachim Loew is not likely to change the way his side play, and their strengths are going forward.