Group B at Euro 2012 has already been dubbed the “Group of death”, and it all kicks off on Saturday 9th June. The first game pitches Holland against Denmark, and both will need a result of some sort with Portugal and Germany to come in the group stages. Is their any value when the Dutch face the Danes?
Daniel Agger Anytime Goalscorer 16/1 @ William Hill
Euro 2012 Form
The match odds market makes Holland massive jollies for this Group B clash, and with punters anxious to pick out some bankers from the first round of games, the Dutch have been well backed to get their campaign off to a great start. The odds however, merit caution.
While Holland have dished out some heavy defeats, they have also chucked in some flat performances and have already lost 3 times in 2012 – to Sweden, Germany (3-0) and Bulgaria in a recent friendly.
In addition to the possibility of an off colour Holland, there is also the fact that the Danes are underrated. Having qualified ahead of Portugal, Denmark boasted a record of W6 D1 L1 from their 8 competitive Euro championship fixtures, and 2012 has already seen them notch wins versus Norway, Sweden and Portugal. The 6/1 available on a Denmark win is tempting, but there is an even juicier price on offer…
With Denmark priced slightly too big in the match odds markets, that trend spills into related bets too, and the Anytime Goalscorer market has thrown up one price in particular. Daniel Agger is no goal machine, but at 16/1, William Hill are way out of step with their rivals. Agger has 9 goals in 170 games for Liverpool, which suggests 16/1 is about right, but his record in knock-out or cup games (including the Champions League for example) is 5 in 50. More importantly, his International record is 3 in the last 14 – and in the pre-tournament friendly with Australia, Agger scored a 32nd minute penalty. The central defender is as small as 9/2 with other bookmakers, and more generally available at 7/1.
Euro 2012 Tip
Take 16/1 on Daniel Agger to score anytime with William Hill. The bet offers a small amount of value come what May, but if Agger is now the recognised penalty taker, that price looks huge.