Euro 2012 FranceEuro 2012 SwedenGroup D at Euro 2012 reaches a conclusion on June the 19th. Sweden already know they are going home, but France still need a point to assure a quarter final spot. Will the Swedes restore some pride, or will the slick French extend their long unbeaten run?

 

Recommended bets;

Over 2.5 Goals 17/20 (1.85) @ Bet365

 

Group D Overview

France head into their final game on 4 points after drawing with England and seeing off co-hosts Ukraine in relative comfort (2-0). Those results have not assured a place in the Quarter finals just yet however, and the French need at least a point to assure they progress.

Sweden, in contrast, already know their fate. Defeats to both Ukraine and England leave them pointless and they know they will be heading home whatever happens. Having led in both their previous games, it is a frustrating exit.

Overs and Unders analysis

Sweden’s last 12 games have seen 3 or more goals on 9 occasions (75%). The defence has been breached at least twice in 5 of those fixtures and they have recorded clean sheets versus just two sides – Bahrain and San Marino. French goals look extremely likely, but with Sweden having nothing to play for, they could well throw caution to the wind themselves.

France have some good defensive statistics of late, but they have not been playing the higher ranked nations – when they have, they generally concede. England, Iceland and Germany got on the scoreboard against them in the last 12 months and a carefree Sweden could do likewise.

In the final round of group games, as teams start to find their feet, and more importantly have a more immediate need for results, the percentage of games finishing with 3 or more goals rises to 58%. That is an important change after what are generally tight early fixtures.

Betting tip;

France look worthy favourites but 4/6 (1.66) looks about right. Over 2.5 goals however, offers a small edge, given the Swede’s habit of conceding and the French requirement to get some sort of result. 17/20 (1.85) at Bet365 is attractive.