Holland and Germany renew their age old rivalry when Group B at Euro 2012 resumes on June 13th. The teams had contrasting fortunes in their opening games, Holland losing 1-0, while the Germans won by the same scoreline. With the Dutch almost in the last chance saloon, where is the betting value?
Over 2.5 Goals Evens @ Ladbrokes
Euro 2012 Germany
The Germans have been involved in high scoring games in 9 of their last 11 fixtures. Their cagey first match versus Portugal, was a rarity then, in that it produced just a single goal. Germany boast a fearsome front four, and more often than not, they come up with the goods. They have notched up 30 goals in 2011/12 (In 11 fixtures), including a 3-0 friendly win against the Dutch back in November.
Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller and Mario Gomez got 12 goals between them during qualifying, and Miroslav Klose has another 9 – and could not get a starting birth against Portugal. With Mesut Ozil prompting from midfield, Germany boast a prolific attack.
The round of second group games historically provide more goals than the first group of fixtures, as sides find their feet and more importantly, have a greater need for positive results, and therefore look to be more attacking – Holland certainly need a good result, and are likely then, to approach the game in a much more attacking way than Portugal did when they clashed with Joachim Low’s men.
Euro 2012 Holland
After the shock defeat to Denmark, the Dutch need a big result against Germany. In order to get one, they need to maintain the attacking intent they showed versus the Danes – and then hope their finishing improves.
6 of the last 11 Holland games have finished with 3 or more goals, so the even money with Ladbrokes in the Over 2.5 market looks value, given the Dutch necessity for a result, and the fact that that could suit the potent German counter-attack. Portugal held out against Germany until deep into the second half by playing a fairly conservative style, but Holland will be encouraged by the way Portugal did manage to carve out chances once they threw off the shackles late on, in a bid to get something from the match.
Euro 2012 tip
The figures point towards 3 or more goals, with Germany coming in ‘Overs’ in 9 of their last 11 and the Dutch 6 of their last 11. With Evens available at Ladbrokes, that offers clear value, especially as Holland need a result, and therefore need to be positive.