The first of the Euro 2012 Quarter Finals takes place on June 21st, where Portugal go up against the Czech Republic. Both nations were beaten in their opening game, but went on to qualify for the latter stages. Who will be the first side to book a place in the Semi Final?
Over 2.5 Goals 11/10 (2.1) @ Paddy Power
Having lost their opening games, Portugal and the Czech Republic have to a certain extent, been playing knock-out ties already. The Czechs followed up their 4-1 defeat at the hands of Russia, by beating both Greece and co-hosts Poland – emerging from Group A as winners.
Portugal lost a tight game with Germany when Group B got under way, but then saw off both Denmark and Holland to come through as runners-up. The Portuguese will be favourites and having navigated the ‘group of death’, their confidence will be high.
Historically, the knock out stages of previous European championships have seen a drop in the average number of goals scored per game and likewise a drop in the number of games which finish with 3 goals or more. There is however, compelling evidence that suggests this game could buck that trend and provide a winning punt at bigger than evens on the Overs market.
The Czech Republic have been involved in games with 3 or more goals, in 8 of their last 13. They have also scored in 11 of their last 12, failing only against World and European champions, Spain. Similarly, Portugal have seen their matches finish ‘Overs’ on 8 of their 12 games during the 2011/12 season (67%). Their opening game defeat to Germany saw them adopt a defensive style – but it failed – and their two subsequent performances were much more adventurous. They have rattled in 5 goals and create numerous chances in those two games. The prospects of a return to their initial unambitious style look low.
Euro 2012 tip;
Back Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (2.1) with Paddy Power. Portugal and the Czech Republic both have a tendency to get involved in relatively high scoring games, and the price offers some value despite the pressure of the occasion.