The English Premier League is undoubtedly one of the most prestigious football leagues in the world. And since prestige attracts betting action, it is also the league with the biggest betting market. In this guide we sum up a few interesting insights and tips that can be quite useful to those who are trying to find value in this challenging market.
Practically everybody, from fans and recreational bettors to professionals, is trying to find an edge in the Premier League markets, but the truth of the matter is that it is incredibly hard to defeat the bookmakers in this particular discipline.
Betting on the Top Teams
The EPL is known for the dominance of its top teams, including Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester City. However, the truth is that trying to back those four for the straight win in every single match is certainly not a winning strategy, especially if you place your bets later on – that is when the odds have already been driven down by the public and when there is obviously hardly any value left.
Furthermore, sometimes the odds might look very juicy to plenty of casual punters, but there might be something else behind them than most of the market sees. As an example, just look at the Norwich – Manchester United clash from the beginning of the 2012/2013 season. Thousands of unsuspecting punters were piling their cash on Manchester’s victory at around 1.57 only to be left disappointed at the end of the day. The most important rule is to be extra careful when it comes to these unusual occurrences and when it comes to betting on the huge favourites in general.
Finding Value in the Underdogs
On the other hand, it seems that much more value can be found when it comes to those low-key matches between two fairly average teams. Those matches do not get as much attention from the biggest market players and those who are willing to invest their energy into careful analysis can often reap nice profits.
The thing that stands out the most in the EPL is how closely matched the mid-table teams usually are. In many national leagues, there are a few weak teams that have virtually no chance of avoiding relegation over and over again. Such a distinction is much less clear in the EPL, when even teams like the aforementioned Norwich can defeat a team like Manchester United from time to time. And just look for how long has Chelsea been struggling to break teams like Fulham or Swansea down.
Another thing that should be mentioned is that the league is large and that many teams are playing for virtually nothing in the final rounds. Nevertheless, the trend that can sometimes be seen in other leagues where such teams sometimes do not care too much about the results cannot be applied in the EPL. This really is a league where every single match matters even for the poorer teams.
Mindsets and Squad Rotations
Mindsets and squad rotations are yet another factors that have to be considered when it comes to the English Premier League. Namely, they are much more important than in other leagues. The thing is, English teams have very heavy schedules – apart from the league, there are a few domestic cups for all the teams, many of which are also participating in either the Champions League or the Europa League. The managers therefore have to rotate the squad very often in order to accommodate for that schedule, which can often lead to surprising results.
When it comes to mindsets, it is also important to know how motivated the teams are for a particular competition. The main league is usually the priority, while even teams like Manchester City tend to under-perform in competitions that don’t bear that much glamour, including the domestic cups and the Europa League.
To sum things up – it is almost impossible to find a clear trend when it comes to the English Premier League. All the teams are very well-organized and no team can be completely sure about whether its position is as solid as it may appear to be.
On one hand, everyone can watch every single match live – on the other hand, you are never going to find exclusive information. Whether something like that is your cup of tea or not is up for you to decide. The advantages are obvious – no limits, plenty of different markets to bet on, and a lot of prestige in the betting community.