England head up to Nottingham for Friday’s 4th ODI, two up with two to play

That England managed to chase down 358 to beat Pakistan in Bristol with over five overs to spare is testament to both how strong England’s batting line up is and how the regulations favour batting sides. This was England’s second highest ODI chase ever and since 2017 they have now won 80% of matches in which they have batted second, and on blameless surfaces its difficult to stop good batting sides chasing down totals. 358 looked a good score for Pakistan but England never looked threatened.

More of the same is expected at Trent Bridge, one of the fastest scoring grounds in the country and with small boundaries especially square of the wicket. Winning the toss is a major variance in the format with such an advantage to chasing a target and so far England have won both games after winning the toss.

Pakistan aren’t too far away though, scoring 350+ twice and with two hundreds. The bowling line up is struggling to restrict England, minus a first choice wrist spinner, but Pakistan won’t be alone this summer in faiing to do that.

Prices for the Trent Bridge game are England 1/3 and Pakistan now out to 5/2 on the outright. The teams really are closer than these prices imply and with an eye on the upcoming world cup England are rotating, resting Buttler and Rashid in Bristol and promising to do more at Trent Bridge as they look to finalise their squad.

For the 5/2 to be value Pakistan need to win the toss, and probably chase, so with that element of variance in mind they are once again the suggestion here.