After England and New Zealand drew the two test series ended 1-1, next week sees a five match ODI series

Recommendation

New Zealand to win the series 4-1 @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes

The games are as follows:

9th June Edgbaston

12th June, The Oval

14th June, Southampton

17th June Trent Bridge

20th June Chester-Le-Street

On Paper there is a big disparity between the two sides. New Zealand were world cup runners up in February whilst England exited in the group stages. New Zealand also have had a huge advantage in mindset in ODIs, and we saw signs in the recent test series that their aggressive approach, scoring consistently at 5 runs an over, has not changed.  In the Headingley test first innings scoring 350 in 70 overs, where most test sides would take 100 overs plus for that score, created 30-50 extra overs in the game for them to bowl which proved vital with the loss of play due to weather and allowed them to force a win In the series six Kiwi batsmen had strike-rates of 60+, compared to just two for England.Essentially they were playing one-day cricket over five days.New Zealand are a brave side. Under the captaincy of Brendon McCullum they only play one way and their approach in the ODIs will be the same.

New Zealand are an ODI team in their prime. Looking at ODI performances in 2015 only amongst the squad we have:

Guptill 786 runs in 18 innings at 49

Williamson 641 runs in 15 innings at 49

McCullum 608 runs in 17 innings at 35

Taylor 554 runs in 17 innings at 42

Anderson 441 in 15 innings at 34

In the bowling ranks

Boult 30 wickets in 15 games at 20

Anderson 25 wickets in 16 games at 21

Southee 24 wickets in n13 games at 28

All play in the upcoming series, supplemented by the likes of specialists Elliott and Ronchi.

All this is in contrast to England’s squad. Major players are rested, with one eye on a very crowded schedule and upcoming ashes, including Anderson, Broad, Bell and Moeen Ali. In its favour the squad is full of talent. Supplementing the experience of Morgan, Buttler, Root and Finn are some of the most explosive players around the county scene. Hales, Roy, Billings, Willey are all match-winners and point (finally) to England adopting a more modern approach to the ODI game

It is a huge task to ask a young team to overcome New Zealand here though. The probability of questionable weather shortening games gives them a chance of course but the advantage in such home conditions is likely to be negated by the skill of Boult and Southee with the swinging ball.

All this helps explain why New Zealand are a prohibitive 1/2 to win the five game series. Looking for value in the correct score markets, New Zealand 3-2 is 2/1 favourite, New Zealand 4-1 is 3-1 and 5-0 is 8-1. The series is unlikely to be a whitewash, the question for me is whether England can win at least two matches. On balance i think the value is that England’s young aggressive team do compete but fail to win more than a game. The 3/1 on a 4-1 New Zealand series victory with Ladbrokes is the bet

Recommendation

New Zealand to win the series 4-1 @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes