Week 9 of the NFL Season begins on Thursday night as the AFC North leading Cincinnati Bengals visit Miami to play the Dolphins.

Recommendation

Bengals to score over 23.5 points at 10/11 with BetVictor

The Bengals are favourites, 3 points on the spread to win their fifth game in a row and tighten their grip on the AFC North. This is a trap game though, as Miami have one of the best records as a home underdog in recent years

Typically the Dolphins in recent years have had a stout defense and have struggled to create offense. This has been slowly changing, but unconvincingly at times with a running game that remains below par and the jury still out on Tannehill the Quarterback.

The idea I wanted to promulgate was to back the Bengals to score over 23.5 points at 10/11 with BetVictor

Why is this?

In eight games this season the Bengals have scored 197 points, averaging 24 points a game, but this raw data masks a big improvement in offensive performance in the last three weeks with 27,27 and 49 points scored

QB Andy Dalton is often seen, correctly on the evidence of the past two seasons, as the Bengals weakness but the fact remains that he has a wealth of attacking options to choose from

- AJ Green leads the AFC with 734 receiving yards
- Because Green draws double teams, the Wide receiver on the other side Marvin Jones benefits. He has 7 Touchdown catches so far this season
- At Running back Giovani Bernard is a thread both rushing and receiving out of the backfield
- Both Tight Ends Eifert and Gresham are solid options, with nearly 300 receiving yards each

Now that the offense has started to click, they should be in most games capable of exceeding 23.5 points

On the other side the Dolphins have conceded 167 points in 7 games, average 24 points a game.

Again though, the last few games tells a better story for the bet, conceding more than 22 points in each of the last five games. The Dolphins rank 21 of 32 in Defense in the NFL, a far cry from the performance of recent seasons

As back up the Bengals, who have one of the better defenses in the league are banged up on defense, losing Leon Hall (their number 1 cornerback) and Rey Mualauga (their starting linebacker) to injuries. This significance of this is that the Bengals may have to score more points to win tomorrow

To conclude, I do not see much downside below 23 points (three touchdowns and a field goal typically). I see some upside.

Recommendation

Cincinnati Bengals over 23.5 points at Miami Dolphins 10/11 BetVictor