The next two nights see the start of the Capital One Cup in English football, with the first round between non-Premiership sides, split between seeded and non-seeded sides and a huge number of ties to look at

Recommendations:

Watford 10/11 at Bristol Rovers

Blackburn 11/10 at Carlisle United

Burnley 20/21 at York City

Bolton 10/11 at Shrewsbury Town

Singles and/or Lucky 15, all with BetVictor

In prior years many Championship clubs, particularly those involved in promotion or relegation battles, didn’t care too much about the cups and this was reflected in team selection. As such Cup nights became difficult for punters, as it was difficult to predict both team selection and motivation.

This year has seen Financial Fair Play (FFP) introduced, and up to nine Championship clubs, potentially more, are impinged because of it

Logically the importance of revenue for a cup run for these sides has increased because the FFP ratios are calculated on player wages to turnover each June on the preceding season. Teams that break the ratios face transfer embargos and then points deductions

How does these sides increase revenue? Higher crowds, of course, but stadium capacity is a limit. Sponsorship revenue helps of course, but also cup runs due to prize money, TV fees and gate receipts. Owners cannot just pump money in to circumvent the FFP rules.

I looked across the Capital One sides tonight and alighted on the following:

Watford 10/11 at Bristol Rovers

Blackburn Rovers 11/10 at Carlisle United tomorrow

Burnley 20/21 at York City

Bolton Wanderers 10/11 at Shrewsbury Town

The criteria were

Championship clubs with FFP problems (bar Watford, the three above have lost recently or are :about to lose Premiership parachute payments which act as a buffer to FFP. Watford nonetheless have had transfer embargo issues)

Away at lower division sides but priced as “backable” ie not short odds on

Lower division sides I don’t rate too highly. York, Shrewsbury, Carlisle are all finance restricted on squads and I doubt any will have top half type seasons.I saw two of the three in pre-season, and saw nothing to get me excited.

All four prices with BetVictor look attractive to me, and could be combined in multiples. For example a £5 Lucky 15 at the prices quoted pays over £380, and would be in profit with a single loser too.

Recommendations:

Watford 10/11 at Bristol Rovers

Blackburn Rovers 11/10 at Carlisle United

Burnley 20/21 at York City

Bolton Wanderers 10/11 at Shrewsbury Town

Singles and/or Lucky 15, all with BetVictor