The Betfred Mile, previously known as the Golden Mile, is a Class 2 Heritage Handicap worth £130,000 that takes place on Day 4 of Glorious Goodwood. The field currently stands at 75 and the co-favourites for the race are previous Glorious Goodwood winner Stirring Ballad (pictured) and Richard Hannon’s Wentworth at a best price of 8/1 (9.00). But we’ve got a couple of betting tips at much healthier prices, including a 25/1 (26.00) chance with ToteSport…
By analysing recent winners of Glorious Goodwood’s Betfred Mile – formerly known as the Golden Mile – we can build up a profile of just what it takes to win this valuable Heritage Handicap. Here are the important trends to note:
Key Betfred Mile Trends
- All of the last 13 Betfred Mile winners ran in a Class 3 (or better) race last time out
- 12 of the last 13 winners had raced in the past 34 days
These Betfred Mile trends suggest that we should be looking to avoid rusty horses, preferring those with a recent run in them. We should also be looking to swerve any horses taking a big step up in class.
- All of the last 13 Betfred Mile winners had won at either 8f or 9f
- 12 of the last 13 winners had won at Class 3 (or better)
According to these trends we should be looking to back a horse of a certain class, with proven form over the Betfred Mile trip.
- 12 of the last 13 winners of the Betfred Mile were aged between 3 and 5
A majority of Betfred Mile winners in recent years have been of a certain age (including all of the last seven) and so it makes sense to focus on this age range.
- All of the last 13 Betfred Mile winners were officially rated 87 to 106
- 11 of the last 13 winners had raced in Group or Listed company
As we touched on earlier, we need to be looking for a horse of a certain class and these Betfred Mile trends back that up.
- 11 of the last 13 Betfred Mile winners raced prominently
The nature of the Goodwood course means that speedy types and prominent runners do well. This particular trend emphasises that nicely.
- 10 of the last 13 winners of the Betfred Mile were drawn in stalls 1 to 5
Strangely for a race run over a mile, there does appear to be something of a draw bias in Glorious Goodwood’s Betfred Mile. Low numbers are doing well recently at the course more generally, but in this particular race the bias seems especially strong. Obviously it’s too early to worry about this trend at the moment, but if you prefer to bet nearer to the time then it’s definitely worth considering.
Having applied all of these trends to the 2013 Betfred Mile field, we are left with just two options: Mark Johnston’s Es Que Love and the William Knight trained Fire Ship.
The first of these selections probably hasn’t won as much in his career as he might have, but the four year old colt has still been running well in races of this nature lately. He ran in both the Royal Hunt Cup and the Buckingham Palace Stakes at this year’s Royal Ascot, finishing 11th and 5th, before finishing as runner up in both the Coral Challenge at Sandown and the Bunbury Cup. I think he has a race of this nature in him and at current odds of 20/1 (21.00) with ToteSport, he looks to be worth an Each-Way wager.
Fire Ship is currently a best price of 25/1 (26.00) with ToteSport and also rates a decent Each-Way chance for the 2013 Betfred Mile. The gelding hasn’t been in sparkling form of late, but he recently finished third in a Listed race over in France (and in fact, he ended last season’s campaign with a third place finish in a Listed race too) which suggests there’s potential there to win a race of this sort.
The 2013 Betfred Mile
Friday August 2nd, 15:05
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